In this paper, we employ various tests to investigate the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis for four African stock markets - Ghana, Mauritius, Egypt and South Africa. The results of both parametric and non-parametric tests show that the South African stock market is weak form efficient, whereas that of Ghana, Mauritius and Egypt are weak form inefficient. This implies that successive security returns on the South African market are independent and follow a random walk. The same cannot be said of the other three markets. Consequently, we also fitted an ARIMA model to the excess return data for Ghana, Mauritius and Egypt using the Box-Jenkins method. The ARIMA models are then used to generate one-period ahead forecasts for the subsequent 12 periods for these three countries. The ARIMA forecasts in all three countries outperformed the naïve model, corroborating our initial inefficiency results from the earlier tests.

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1,3, University of Mannheim (Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Ökonometrie), course: Bachelorarbeit, language: English, abstract: In recent years foreign aid was often conditioned on good institutions. Due to this course the development of financial institutions has been considered vital for the development process. This thesis points in its theoretical part to the positive effects of efficient stock markets on economic growth and examines empirically the efficiency of Africa's sub-Saharan stock markets. Results are then compared with the same tests on four emerging markets in Asia and as a benchmark on S&P 500 and DAX. It discusses further the relationship between market efficiency and financial crisis and comes to the conclusion that a crisis worsens the respective efficiency level. Nevertheless, all African markets are at least able to pass the critical lowest hurdle of market efficiency. However, conclusions from the research propose, that the Asian markets perform better than the African markets, although the study comes to some inconclusive results. Limits to the efficient market hypothesis itself and its empirical analysis are shown throughout the paper. The study suggests that former reforms need to be intensified in order to avoid a further increase in overall income inequalities.

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1,3, University of Mannheim (Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Ökonometrie), course: Bachelorarbeit, language: English, abstract: In recent years foreign aid was often conditioned on good institutions. Due to this course the development of financial institutions has been considered vital for the development process. This thesis points in its theoretical part to the positive effects of efficient stock markets on economic growth and examines empirically the efficiency of Africa’s sub-Saharan stock markets. Results are then compared with the same tests on four emerging markets in Asia and as a benchmark on S&P 500 and DAX. It discusses further the relationship between market efficiency and financial crisis and comes to the conclusion that a crisis worsens the respective efficiency level. Nevertheless, all African markets are at least able to pass the critical lowest hurdle of market efficiency. However, conclusions from the research propose, that the Asian markets perform better than the African markets, although the study comes to some inconclusive results. Limits to the efficient market hypothesis itself and its empirical analysis are shown throughout the paper. The study suggests that former reforms need to be intensified in order to avoid a further increase in overall income inequalities.

This chapter reviews empirical studies on weak form of efficiency with the aim of establishing whether the African market is inefficient or adaptive. The reviewed studies are categorised based on their methodological approaches to compare the power of linear and non-linear models in testing for weak-form efficiency. The studies on calendar anomalies, an indication of weak-form inefficiency, are reviewed to assess whether these anomalies are adaptive as portrayed by the relatively recent theory of adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). The scope of reviewed studies is also extended to developed and emerging markets to gain a broad comparison of the findings. This review revealed that non-linear dependence has been revealed in stock returns suggesting that non-linear models are best fit to test for the stock market efficiency. Reviewed studies produced contradictory findings with some supporting and others rejecting weak-form efficiency. Thus, most studies support the AMH, which suggests that market efficiencies and anomalies are time changing. This chapter concludes that most of the existing studies on AMH have been carried out in markets other than Africa, and hence, further empirical studies on the evolving and changing nature of efficiency in African stock markets are recommended.

This book is the first systematic attempt to address emerging land markets and their implications for poverty, equity, and efficiency across a number of African countries. The high incidence of poverty and the need for increased agricultural productivity remain acute in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa, where a lack of secure land rights and a growing scarcity of land relative to the size of the population are becoming increasingly critical issues. Indeed, land issues in the region are high on the international policy agenda. Yet our knowledge about land tenure security and other rural factor markets (such as labor, oxen, manure, purchased inputs, and credit) is far from adequate to formulate sensible policies. The case studies in the book show that, while land markets and especially informal markets have been rapidly emerging in densely populated parts of Africa - and have generally been to the benefit of the poor--their functions remain imperfect. This is due to policy-induced tenure insecurity and the fragmentation of agricultural land. Applying rigorous quantitative analyses, the book provides a basis for taking into account the role of land markets in national land policies. All too often, the authors argue, land policies have been extreme, either prohibiting all land transactions or giving unrestricted freehold rights to a small elite at the expense of the poor. From the long experience in Asia, it is known that such policies are detrimental to both production efficiency and equity of land use. The authors argue that future policies in Africa should work with the markets. Regulations should be imposed only with careful testing that they are having the intended effects. The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa is a resource for teaching in developed and developing countries, as it provides both comprehensive reviews of the literature and detailed case studies. It is intended to facilitate the dialogue between researchers and policymakers, as well as inspire researchers to go further in their investigations and build an even stronger basis for good policies. The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa is the first publication in the new Environment for Development (EfD) book series. EfD books focus on research and applications in environmental and natural resource economics as they are relevant to poverty reduction and environmental problems in developing countries. The EfD book series is part of the EfD initiative. (www.environmentfordevelopment.org)