While changes in emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to be slow and smooth the intensity and impacts of climate change on the environment and society could be abrupt and erratic. Surprising and nonlinear responses are likely to occur as warming exceeds certain thresholds inducing relatively rapid and disruptive changes in the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets precipitation intensity and patterns coastal inundation the occurrence of wildfire the ranges of plant and animal species and more. Written by a transdisciplinary group of internationally respe.

'An impressive accomplishment. Al Gore, Former Vice President of the US, co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, and author of An Inconvenient Truth Offers positive solutions that no rational person, organization or government can ignore - except at their peril. Stephen H. Schneider, Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Stanford University, and author of The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival The science is clear and the message of this book is that there is no more time for delay. Rosina M. Bierbaum, Dean, University of Michigan While changes in emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to be slow and smooth, the intensity and impacts of climate change on the environment and society could be abrupt and erratic. Surprising and nonlinear responses are likely to occur as warming exceeds certain thresholds, inducing relatively rapid and disruptive changes in the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, precipitation intensity and patterns, coastal inundation, the occurrence of wildfire, the ranges of plant and animal species and more. Written by a transdisciplinary group of internationally respected researchers, this book explores the possibilities of such changes, their significance for society and efforts to move more rapidly to limit climate change than current government measures.

Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

Beginning in the second half of the twentieth century, the impacts of climate change have been fierce, causing loss of human life and irreparable destruction to natural and man-made infrastructure in many parts of the world. The difference between climate change now and in the past is that of sudden and disproportionate disruption of the natural energy dynamics by the changing consumption patterns of billions of human beings who have polluted terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The picture that emerges from the exhaustive analysis of international data drawn from the most reliable sources indicates that we have possibly gained access to the gateway of extinction and it is time that we take corrective steps immediately. Global climate change is further altering our relationship with the environment, modifying relatively stable climatic factors and making them uncertain, unpredictable, and threatening. Changes in land use and an increasing demand for water resources due to climate change have affected the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, ensure the supply of freshwater resources, provide ecosystem services, and promote rural multi-functionality. Ensuring food production does not just depend on increasing water efficiency, promoting climate resilient crop production, or reducing land-use competition for urbanization but also on a more suitable and stable climate as the changes in climatic factors like precipitation, temperature, radiation, evaporation, and wind bring about some major shifts in global food supplies. According to Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), focused on greenhouse gas emissions projections, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change increases the risk of simultaneous crop failures (including corn, rice, legumes, and vegetables) if irrigation systems are not fully adapted to water stress situations. A changing climate could have many adverse impacts on other sectors of our environment. This book offers concrete, up-to-date, and appropriate study cum research material for students, researchers, academicians and policymakers. It will be of a greater interest to students and researchers in the field of environmental science, agriculture science, agronomy, and sustainable development.

Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.