The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives. This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. OrnsteinOCoUhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice. Sample Chapter(s). A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets (331 KB). Contents: A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets; Stochastic Analysis for Independent Increment Processes; Stochastic Models for the Energy Spot Price Dynamics; Pricing of Forwards and Swaps Based on the Spot Price; Applications to the Gas Markets; Modeling Forwards and Swaps Using the HeathOCoJarrowOCoMorton Approach; Constructing Smooth Forward Curves in Electricity Markets; Modeling of the Electricity Futures Market; Pricing and Hedging of Energy Options; Analysis of Temperature Derivatives. Readership: Researchers in energy and commodity markets, and mathematical finance.

This monograph presents a theory for random field models in time and space, viewed as stochastic processes with values in a Hilbert space, to model the stochastic dynamics of forward and futures prices in energy, power, and commodity markets. In this book, the well-known Heath–Jarrow–Morton approach from interest rate theory is adopted and extended into an infinite-dimensional framework, allowing for flexible modeling of price stochasticity across time and along the term structure curve. Various models are introduced based on stochastic partial differential equations with infinite-dimensional Lévy processes as noise drivers, emphasizing random fields described by low-dimensional parametric covariance functions instead of classical high-dimensional factor models. The Filipović space, a separable Hilbert space of Sobolev type, is found to be a convenient state space for the dynamics of forward and futures term structures. The monograph provides a classification of important operators in this space, covering covariance operators and the stochastic modeling of volatility term structures, including the Samuelson effect. Fourier methods are employed to price many derivatives of interest in energy, power, and commodity markets, and sensitivity 'delta' expressions can be derived. Additionally, the monograph covers forward curve smoothing, the connection between forwards with fixed delivery and delivery period, as well as the classical theory of forward and futures pricing. This monograph will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in mathematical finance and stochastic analysis applied in the challenging markets of energy, power, and commodities. Practitioners seeking sophisticated yet flexible and analytically tractable risk models will also find it valuable.

This monograph presents a theory for random field models in time and space, viewed as stochastic processes with values in a Hilbert space, to model the stochastic dynamics of forward and futures prices in energy, power, and commodity markets. In this book, the well-known Heath–Jarrow–Morton approach from interest rate theory is adopted and extended into an infinite-dimensional framework, allowing for flexible modeling of price stochasticity across time and along the term structure curve. Various models are introduced based on stochastic partial differential equations with infinite-dimensional Lévy processes as noise drivers, emphasizing random fields described by low-dimensional parametric covariance functions instead of classical high-dimensional factor models. The Filipović space, a separable Hilbert space of Sobolev type, is found to be a convenient state space for the dynamics of forward and futures term structures. The monograph provides a classification of important operators in this space, covering covariance operators and the stochastic modeling of volatility term structures, including the Samuelson effect. Fourier methods are employed to price many derivatives of interest in energy, power, and commodity markets, and sensitivity 'delta' expressions can be derived. Additionally, the monograph covers forward curve smoothing, the connection between forwards with fixed delivery and delivery period, as well as the classical theory of forward and futures pricing. This monograph will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in mathematical finance and stochastic analysis applied in the challenging markets of energy, power, and commodities. Practitioners seeking sophisticated yet flexible and analytically tractable risk models will also find it valuable.

Modeling the dynamics of energy markets has become a challenging task. The intensification of their financialization since 2004 had made them more complex but also more integrated with other tradable asset classes. More importantly, their large and frequent fluctuations in terms of both prices and volatility, particularly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis 2008-2009, posit difficulties for modeling and forecasting energy price behavior and are primary sources of concerns for macroeconomic stability and general economic performance.This handbook aims to advance the debate on the theories and practices of quantitative energy finance while shedding light on innovative results and technical methods applied to energy markets. Its primary focus is on the recent development and applications of mathematical and quantitative approaches for a better understanding of the stochastic processes that drive energy market movements. The handbook is designed for not only graduate students and researchers but also practitioners and policymakers.

Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.

The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV