Contains selected papers presented at a symposium at Jinja, Uganda in February 1993 which was organized by IDEAL, the International Decade for East African Lakes, a ten-year, multi- national, multi-disciplinary investigation of the biological, geological, chemical, and physical limnology of the East African Lakes, with an emphasis on the Great Lakes of the East African Rift Valley and the climatology and paleoclimatology of the Rift Valley itself. The 37 contributions address tectonic settings of the East African lakes, the East African climate, physical limnology, aquatic chemistry, food webs and fisheries, sedimentary processes, the impact of humans, and a historical note. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Bayesian statistics is a dynamic and fast-growing area of statistical research and the Valencia International Meetings provide the main forum for discussion. These resulting proceedings form an up-to-date collection of research.

Comprehensive theoretical overview of kernel smoothing methods with motivating examples Kernel smoothing is a flexible nonparametric curve estimation method that is applicable when parametric descriptions of the data are not sufficiently adequate. This book explores theory and methods of kernel smoothing in a variety of contexts, considering independent and correlated data e.g. with short-memory and long-memory correlations, as well as non-Gaussian data that are transformations of latent Gaussian processes. These types of data occur in many fields of research, e.g. the natural and the environmental sciences, and others. Nonparametric density estimation, nonparametric and semiparametric regression, trend and surface estimation in particular for time series and spatial data and other topics such as rapid change points, robustness etc. are introduced alongside a study of their theoretical properties and optimality issues, such as consistency and bandwidth selection. Addressing a variety of topics, Kernel Smoothing: Principles, Methods and Applications offers a user-friendly presentation of the mathematical content so that the reader can directly implement the formulas using any appropriate software. The overall aim of the book is to describe the methods and their theoretical backgrounds, while maintaining an analytically simple approach and including motivating examples—making it extremely useful in many sciences such as geophysics, climate research, forestry, ecology, and other natural and life sciences, as well as in finance, sociology, and engineering. A simple and analytical description of kernel smoothing methods in various contexts Presents the basics as well as new developments Includes simulated and real data examples Kernel Smoothing: Principles, Methods and Applications is a textbook for senior undergraduate and graduate students in statistics, as well as a reference book for applied statisticians and advanced researchers.

Climate is a paradigm of a complex system. Analysing climate data is an exciting challenge, which is increased by non-normal distributional shape, serial dependence, uneven spacing and timescale uncertainties. This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computing-intensive method able to meet the challenge. It shows the bootstrap to perform reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques: regression, spectral analysis, extreme values and correlation. This book is written for climatologists and applied statisticians. It explains step by step the bootstrap algorithms (including novel adaptions) and methods for confidence interval construction. It tests the accuracy of the algorithms by means of Monte Carlo experiments. It analyses a large array of climate time series, giving a detailed account on the data and the associated climatological questions. “....comprehensive mathematical and statistical summary of time-series analysis techniques geared towards climate applications...accessible to readers with knowledge of college-level calculus and statistics.” (Computers and Geosciences) “A key part of the book that separates it from other time series works is the explicit discussion of time uncertainty...a very useful text for those wishing to understand how to analyse climate time series.” (Journal of Time Series Analysis) “...outstanding. One of the best books on advanced practical time series analysis I have seen.” (David J. Hand, Past-President Royal Statistical Society)

Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS – the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world – and R – an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.

Bridging the gap between research and application, Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference provides a concise, and integrated account of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for performing Bayesian inference. This volume, which was developed from a short course taught by the author at a meeting of Brazilian statisticians and probabilists, retains the didactic character of the original course text. The self-contained text units make MCMC accessible to scientists in other disciplines as well as statisticians. It describes each component of the theory in detail and outlines related software, which is of particular benefit to applied scientists.