"Simulation is a technique of creating representations or models of real world systems or processes and conducting experiments to predict behavior of actual systems. Input modeling is a critical aspect of simulation modeling. Stochastic input models are used to model various aspects of the system under uncertainty including process times and interarrival times. This research focuses on input models for nonstationary arrival processes that can be represented as nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPPs). In particular, a smooth flexible model for the mean-value function (or integrated rate function) of a general NHPP is estimated. To represent the mean-value function, the method utilizes a specially formulated polynomial that is constrained in least-squares estimation to be nondecreasing so the corresponding rate function is nonnegative and continuously differentiable. The degree of the polynomial is determined by applying a modified likelihood ratio test to a set of transformed arrival times resulting from a variance stabilizing transformation of the observed data. Given the degree of polynomial, final estimates of the polynomial coefficients are obtained from original arrival times using least-squares estimation. The method is extended to fit an NHPP model to multiple observed realizations of a process. In addition, the method is adapted to a multiresolution procedure that effectively models NHPPs with long term trend and cyclic behavior given multiple process realizations. An experimental performance evaluation is conducted to determine the capabilities and limitations of the NHPP fitting procedure for single and multiple realizations of test processes. The method is implemented in a Java-based programming environment along with a web interface that allows user to upload observed data, fit an NHPP, and generate realizations of the fitted NHPP for use in simulation experiments."--Abstract.

Point processes and random measures find wide applicability in telecommunications, earthquakes, image analysis, spatial point patterns, and stereology, to name but a few areas. The authors have made a major reshaping of their work in their first edition of 1988 and now present their Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes in two volumes with sub-titles Elementary Theory and Models and General Theory and Structure. Volume One contains the introductory chapters from the first edition, together with an informal treatment of some of the later material intended to make it more accessible to readers primarily interested in models and applications. The main new material in this volume relates to marked point processes and to processes evolving in time, where the conditional intensity methodology provides a basis for model building, inference, and prediction. There are abundant examples whose purpose is both didactic and to illustrate further applications of the ideas and models that are the main substance of the text.

A comprehensive and self-contained introduction to Gaussian processes, which provide a principled, practical, probabilistic approach to learning in kernel machines. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled, practical, probabilistic approach to learning in kernel machines. GPs have received increased attention in the machine-learning community over the past decade, and this book provides a long-needed systematic and unified treatment of theoretical and practical aspects of GPs in machine learning. The treatment is comprehensive and self-contained, targeted at researchers and students in machine learning and applied statistics. The book deals with the supervised-learning problem for both regression and classification, and includes detailed algorithms. A wide variety of covariance (kernel) functions are presented and their properties discussed. Model selection is discussed both from a Bayesian and a classical perspective. Many connections to other well-known techniques from machine learning and statistics are discussed, including support-vector machines, neural networks, splines, regularization networks, relevance vector machines and others. Theoretical issues including learning curves and the PAC-Bayesian framework are treated, and several approximation methods for learning with large datasets are discussed. The book contains illustrative examples and exercises, and code and datasets are available on the Web. Appendixes provide mathematical background and a discussion of Gaussian Markov processes.

Spatial point processes are mathematical models used to describe and analyse the geometrical structure of patterns formed by objects that are irregularly or randomly distributed in one-, two- or three-dimensional space. Examples include locations of trees in a forest, blood particles on a glass plate, galaxies in the universe, and particle centres in samples of material. Numerous aspects of the nature of a specific spatial point pattern may be described using the appropriate statistical methods. Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns provides a practical guide to the use of these specialised methods. The application-oriented approach helps demonstrate the benefits of this increasingly popular branch of statistics to a broad audience. The book: Provides an introduction to spatial point patterns for researchers across numerous areas of application Adopts an extremely accessible style, allowing the non-statistician complete understanding Describes the process of extracting knowledge from the data, emphasising the marked point process Demonstrates the analysis of complex datasets, using applied examples from areas including biology, forestry, and materials science Features a supplementary website containing example datasets. Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns is ideally suited for researchers in the many areas of application, including environmental statistics, ecology, physics, materials science, geostatistics, and biology. It is also suitable for students of statistics, mathematics, computer science, biology and geoinformatics.

An integrated package of powerful probabilistic tools and key applications in modern mathematical data science.

Now in widespread use, generalized additive models (GAMs) have evolved into a standard statistical methodology of considerable flexibility. While Hastie and Tibshirani's outstanding 1990 research monograph on GAMs is largely responsible for this, there has been a long-standing need for an accessible introductory treatment of the subject that also emphasizes recent penalized regression spline approaches to GAMs and the mixed model extensions of these models. Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R imparts a thorough understanding of the theory and practical applications of GAMs and related advanced models, enabling informed use of these very flexible tools. The author bases his approach on a framework of penalized regression splines, and builds a well-grounded foundation through motivating chapters on linear and generalized linear models. While firmly focused on the practical aspects of GAMs, discussions include fairly full explanations of the theory underlying the methods. Use of the freely available R software helps explain the theory and illustrates the practicalities of linear, generalized linear, and generalized additive models, as well as their mixed effect extensions. The treatment is rich with practical examples, and it includes an entire chapter on the analysis of real data sets using R and the author's add-on package mgcv. Each chapter includes exercises, for which complete solutions are provided in an appendix. Concise, comprehensive, and essentially self-contained, Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R prepares readers with the practical skills and the theoretical background needed to use and understand GAMs and to move on to other GAM-related methods and models, such as SS-ANOVA, P-splines, backfitting and Bayesian approaches to smoothing and additive modelling.

Mathematics for Neuroscientists, Second Edition, presents a comprehensive introduction to mathematical and computational methods used in neuroscience to describe and model neural components of the brain from ion channels to single neurons, neural networks and their relation to behavior. The book contains more than 200 figures generated using Matlab code available to the student and scholar. Mathematical concepts are introduced hand in hand with neuroscience, emphasizing the connection between experimental results and theory. Fully revised material and corrected text Additional chapters on extracellular potentials, motion detection and neurovascular coupling Revised selection of exercises with solutions More than 200 Matlab scripts reproducing the figures as well as a selection of equivalent Python scripts