This paper investigates how the sector-specific source or the changing sectoral composition of labor productivity has contributed to aggregate beta convergence, using a newly constructed eight-sector database. The main findings are twofold. First, both within and sectoral reallocation have become important drivers of aggregate convergence in labor productivity. Second, agricultural productivity growth has been a significant contributor to aggregate convergence, whereas catch-up in other sectors has only contributed a small amount to convergence. The strong growth of the agriculture sector has been the most important driver of aggregate productivity convergence even though agricultural productivity itself in low-income countries is weakly converging to that in advanced economies.

China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

The dissertation examines catching up in labor productivity across countries and across US states. It also studies the role of financial development and inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) on labor productivity and structural change. Chapter one studies unconditional convergence in labor productivity in cross section of countries. Using disaggregated service sector data for 101 countries, we find unconditional convergence in labor productivity for the service sector. The aggregate service sector yields a large unconditional convergence coefficient of -0.028, while for individual sub-sectors we find a similar presence of unconditional convergence. Since the service sector, as part of the "modern" sector now also faces international competition, unconditional convergence in labor productivity in this sector is not totally unwarranted. Given Rodrik's recent findings of unconditional convergence in labor productivity in the manufacturing sector (2013) and the observed failure of unconditional convergence of per capita GDP, our findings of unconditional convergence in the service sector suggest that we need to look carefully at methodological issues such as "aggregation bias" and the huge divergence of other sectors such as the agricultural sector as a potential solution to this anomaly. In chapter two, we investigate secoral unconditional convergence in labor productivity in the US sates using two series of data sets for the period 1987-1997 and 1998-2013. We have found evidence for catching up in labor productivity in the US states for the majority sectors. There is no evidence for unconditional convergence for the mining sector in 1-digit classification for 1980-1997 and manufacturing and utilities sectors in 2-digit classification for the recent data (1998-2013). The aggregate per capita GDP convergence test shows evidence for convergence for the 1980-1997 data but no evidence for convergence in the recent data consistent with the existing literature. The same factors that were considered responsible for regional convergence in the US, such as migration and falling cost of education, could work in the opposite direction to cause divergence in per capita income in recent years. Chapter three considers the relationship between financial development, inflow of foreign direct investment, labor productivity and structural change variables for 41 countries in Groningen Growth and Development 10-sector database for the period 1971-2012 using panel-VAR methodology. The effect of financial development on total labor productivity and employment share in sectors depend on the income level and geographical locations. We find that financial development has a significantly positive effect on total labor productivity of high income European countries, the United States, and for middle income Latin American counties. We do not find evidence for the positive effect of financial development on labor productivity for low income and middle income countries except for Latin American countries. The result does not show a significant effect of financial development on sectoral employment and value added shares. Inflow of FDI has a statistically significant negative effect on employment share of agriculture in middle income countries, and positive effect on the employment share of the manufacturing sector in middle income Asian countries.

In this paper, we study the transformation process Indian agriculture exhibited in the recent past, studying its policy implications. Between the years 2005-06 and 2015-16, more than 52 million workers left agriculture, which did not have any effect on agricultural output due to productivity improvements. We estimate the contribution of productivity growth and structural change in agriculture to national productivity growth during 1981-2016. We estimate differentials in agricultural productivity and in their ability to contribute to the structural change process for 21 major states of India. Using revised employment estimates, we trace major changes during the pre-reforms (before 1991) and post-reforms periods. Results show that in the pre-reforms period, the impact of productivity improvements in agriculture on agricultural output was equated by the new workforce entering into this sector, leading to a stagnant labor productivity trend. The labor-shift from agriculture during the early years of the post-reforms period, which increased further in the next decade, has led to a consistent rise in agricultural productivity. In the absence of reforms and the associated labor shift, the productivity growth in Indian agriculture would have been much lower. A similar labor shift during the last decade has not affected agricultural output, which has risen more rapidly. This result holds true for almost all states studied. There exists a positive relation between labor-shift and agricultural output in a cluster of states. Decomposition results indicate ‘within-sector’ productivity growth is the major source of overall growth, with a rising contribution of ‘structural change’. Studying the sources of growth across states offers new scope to achieve inter-sectoral productivity convergence.

Testing for economic convergence across countries has been a central issue in the literature of economic growth and development. This book introduces a modern framework to study the cross-country convergence dynamics in labor productivity and its proximate sources: capital accumulation and aggregate efficiency. In particular, recent convergence dynamics of developed as well as developing countries are evaluated through the lens of a non-linear dynamic factor model and a clustering algorithm for panel data. This framework allows us to examine key economic phenomena such as technological heterogeneity and multiple equilibria. In this context, the book provides a succinct review of the recent club convergence literature, a comparative view of developed and developing countries, and a tutorial on how to implement the club convergence framework in the statistical software Stata.

This collection of original articles looks at the convergence hypothesis, which asserts that since the Second World War, industrial countries were growing increasingly homogeneous in terms of productivity, technology, and per capita incomes. The book examines patterns displayed by individual industries within countries as well as the aggregate economies, influences that underlie the process of convergence, and the role that convergence has played and promises to play in the future. Contributors include: Moses Abramovitz, Alice M. Amsden, Magnus Blomstrom, David Dollar, Takashi Hikino, Gregory Ingram, William Lazonick, Frank Lichtenberg, Robert E. Lipsey, Angus Maddison, Gavin Wright, and Mario Zejan.