"In this report, monthly mean sea level (MSL) variations are analyzed for 117 stations of the National Ocean Service's (NOS) National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) having between 25 and 146 years of data. Monthly MSL data up to the end of 1999 are used to calculate linear trends, and to obtain the average seasonal cycle, the residual time series, and the autoregressive coefficient of the residual with accurate estimates of standard errors. Months with extreme high or low residuals are defined and periods of broad regional correlations between station anomalies are observed. Since the derived trends include the local vertical land motion, they are spatially variable. Calculated MSL trends range from 9.85 mm/yr for Grand Isle, LA to -16.68 mm/yr for Skagway, AK and are consistent with previous station trends published by NOS. The appendices of this report include time series plots for each station of the monthly MSL with the seasonal cycle removed, the seasonal cycle, and the MSL residual after both the seasonal cycle and the trend are removed. The location and timing of any major earthquakes near stations in tectonically-active areas are noted, since an associated vertical offset or a change in MSL trend is possible. An inverse power relationship is derived empirically, relating the standard error for linear trends to the year range of MSL data. An estimated 50 to 60 years of data are required for obtaining linear MSL trends having a 1 mm/yr precision with a 95% statistical confidence interval. For a given length of data, the standard errors for trends at Pacific Ocean and western Gulf of Mexico stations tend to be greater than standard errors for trends at Atlantic coastal stations. MSL trends for the most recent 50-year period of 1950-1999 are compared with trends obtained from each station's entire data set. The trend for the past 50 years is significantly lower at only three out of sixty stations (Eastport, Portland, and Boston). At no station is the 1950-1999 trend significantly higher than the trend obtained from the station's entire data set. In an examination of 50-year MSL trends at sixteen of the longest term stations, it was found that for six Atlantic stations, the periods centered on years from 1930 to 1955 tend to have significantly higher trends than periods centered on years from 1965 to 1975. For San Francisco, trends for all 50-year periods centered from 1890 to 1915 are significantly lower than the overall trend and the trend since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake"--Executive Summary.

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts discusses assessing and quantifying climate change and its impacts from a multi-faceted perspective of ecosystem, social, and infrastructure resilience, given through a lens of statistics and data science. It provides a multi-disciplinary view on the implications of climate variability and shows how the new data science paradigm can help us to mitigate climate-induced risk and to enhance climate adaptation strategies. This book consists of chapters solicited from leading topical experts and presents their perspectives on climate change effects in two general areas: natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts. The chapters unveil topics of atmospheric circulation, climate modeling, and long-term prediction; approach the problems of increasing frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, and forest fires, as well as economic losses, analysis of climate impacts for insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and electric and transport infrastructures. The readers will be exposed to the current research using a variety of methods from physical modeling, statistics, and machine learning, including the global circulation models (GCM) and ocean models, statistical generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM), state space and graphical models, causality networks, Bayesian ensembles, a variety of index methods and statistical tests, and machine learning methods. The reader will learn about data from various sources, including GCM and ocean model outputs, satellite observations, and data collected by different agencies and research units. Many of the chapters provide references to open source software R and Python code that are available for implementing the methods.

Explores how two coastal ecosystems are responding to the pressures of human expansion The Northern Adriatic Sea, a continental shelf ecosystem in the Northeast Mediterranean Sea, and the Chesapeake Bay, a major estuary of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States, are semi-enclosed, river-dominated ecosystems with urbanized watersheds that support extensive industrial agriculture. Coastal Ecosystems in Transition: A Comparative Analysis of the Northern Adriatic and Chesapeake Bay presents an update of a study published two decades ago. Revisiting these two ecosystems provides an opportunity to assess changing anthropogenic pressures in the context of global climate change. The new insights can be used to inform ecosystem-based approaches to sustainable development of coastal environments. Volume highlights include: Effects of nutrient enrichment and climate-driven changes on critical coastal habitats Patterns of stratification and circulation Food web dynamics from phytoplankton to fish Nutrient cycling, water quality, and harmful algal events Causes and consequences of interannual variability The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Read a review of this book in Marine Ecology review of this book

One of 21 climate change synthesis and assessment products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), this report examines the effects of sea level rise, impacts on society, and opportunities to prepare for those consequences, focusing on the eight coastal states from New York to North Carolina. Using scientific literature and policy documents, the report describes potential changes to barrier.

[The report]... provides the American people with an important resource from which they can better understand trends in the condition of the air, water, land, and human health of the United States. This report uses scientifically sound measures, called indicators, to address fundamental questions relevant to the EPA's mission to protect the environment and human health. To accomplish its mission to protect human health and the environment, EPA must pay close attention to trends in the condition of the Nation's environment. This kind of information, which is captured in EPA's 2008 ROE, can help EPA to prioritize its work and to focus on human health and ecological activities that can lead to improvements in the conditions of the Nation's environment.