Quantifying the size and speed of the exchange rate pass-through to prices is important for formulating monetary policy decisions in Romania. Using a recursive VAR model, this paper finds that (i) the pass-through is large and relatively fast, accounting for a sizable fraction of inflation; (ii) the pass-through from the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is larger, if not faster, than the one from alternative exchange rate benchmarks; and (iii) the pass-through to producer prices seems to have moderated recently, while the same cannot be said yet for consumer prices.

Which political and institutional factors trigger reforms that enable the poor to benefit from the process of economic growth? How can the incentives of policy makers be influenced in order to achieve such a dynamic? These are the questions this study seeks to address by examining the transition process in post-communist countries. The author argues that political competition within an accepted and respected institutional environment has been a driving force in shaping the direction and success of transition reforms. Evidence shows that in countries with a sufficient degree of political competition, citizens responded to economic crises by calling for economic liberalization. Economic liberalization removed existing distortions, increased economic efficiency and raised public welfare. This activated a dynamic, self-enforcing reform process that also strengthened the political and economic power of the poor. In the absence of political competition, such a process failed to emerge, thereby contributing to the persistence of poverty. Based on these findings, there is good reason to postulate that some level of political competition is essential for transition reforms to improve economic efficiency and public welfare in a sustainable manner.