Reservoir systems are subject to several uncertainties that are the result of imperfect knowledge about system behavior and inputs. A major source of uncertainty arises from the inability to predict future inflows. Fortunately, it is often possible to generate probabilistic forecasts of inflow volumes in the form of probability density functions or ensembles. These inflow forecasts can be coupled with stochastic management models to determine reservoir release policies and provide stakeholders with meaningful information of upcoming system responses such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. This information on anticipated system responses is also expressed in the form of forecasts that must reliably represent the actual system behavior when it eventually occurs. The first part of this study presents an assessment methodology that can be used to determine the consistency of ensemble forecasts through the use of relative frequency histograms and minimum spanning trees (MST). This methodology is then used to assess a management model's ability to produce reliable ensemble forecasts. It was found that neglecting to account for hydrologic state variables and improperly modeling the finite management horizon decrease ensemble consistency. Several extensions to the existing management model are also developed and evaluated. The second portion of this study involves the management of the uncertainties in reservoir systems. Traditional management models only find management policies that optimize the expected values of system benefits or costs, thereby not allowing operators and stakeholders to explicitly explore issues related to uncertainty and risk management. A technique that can be used to derive management policies that produce desired probabilistic distributions of reservoir system outputs reflecting stakeholder preferences is developed. This technique can be embedded in a user-interactive framework that can be employed to evaluate the trade-offs and build consensus in multi-objective and multi-stakeholder systems. The methods developed in this dissertation are illustrated in case studies of real reservoir systems, including a seven-reservoir, multi-objective system in California's Central Valley.

Under the Earth's surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors' Vox: eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources

During the past five decades, we have witnessed a tremendous evolution in water resource system management. Three characteristics of this evolution are of particular note: First, the application of the systems approach to complex water management problems has been established as one of the most important advances in the field of water resource management. Second, the past five decades have brought a remarkable transformation of attitude in the water resource management community towards environmental concerns and action to address these concerns. Third, applying the principles of sustainability to water resource decision-making requires major changes in the objectives on which decisions are based, and an understanding of the complicated inter-relationships between existing ecological, economic, and social factors. The Special Issue includes 15 contributions that offer insights into contemporary problems, approaches, and issues related to the management of complex water resources systems. It will be presumptuous to say that these 15 contributions characterize the success or failure of the systems approach to support water resources decision-making. However, these contributions offer interesting lessons from current experiences and highlight possible future work.

This book introduces methods for solving the technical and economic problems posed by water reservoirs, so as to ensure they have the best possible economic and social effect. The significance of reservoirs and the development of their function in water management is assessed, and they are classified according to origin and placing. Among the methods for solving the reservoir's function, both graphical and numerical procedures are described, based on the probability theory and mathematical statistics. In the explanation of the supply function of the reservoirs, attention is paid to the processing of hydrological data, the respective probability distribution is assessed, the theory of stochastic processes is explained, and methods of modelling the sequence of mean annual and monthly discharges are mentioned. The demands of consumers and the reliability of water supply are analysed. All types of reservoir discharge control are presented, i.e. multi-year, annual, short-term and compensation. A solution is given for the discharge control in reservoir systems and in special cases of water management, as well as in individual reservoirs. To describe the flood control function of reservoirs, hydrological data are evaluated, the precision of the flood regime characteristics is assessed, the flood routing in a reservoir is resolved, and the question of flood control is discussed. Control of a reservoir is ensured by a special space, as well as by utilizing the supply and overflow components of the reservoir.A separate part is devoted to the water management operations of reservoirs, mentioning the rules for control of the discharge from reservoirs in permanent operation, mainly using central control, and for the study and evaluation of the water management function of reservoirs. The last part of the book describes solutions for new reservoir functions resulting from their incorporation into water management systems and their function in the environment. The basic types of water management systems are described, as well as conditions for their optimal operation. In a similar way, the distribution of investment and operation costs for the various parts of a complex water management project are discussed in detail, as well as the economic impact of the reliability of water supply and flood control. The physical, chemical, biological and social consequences of reservoirs and their significance in creating a cultural landscape are analysed.The book is mainly intended for those who are involved in the development, preparation and operation of water management schemes and students of graduate and post-graduate courses in the field of water management.