The economy is rebounding. After a 6 percent drop in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow at 4 percent both in 2021 and 2022, reflecting improved mobility, a return of the diaspora, and continued policy support. With uncertainty remaining high, including about the course of the pandemic, policies need to be kept flexible. Emphasis should be on limiting the economic scars from the pandemic crisis while making progress on long-standing reform priorities such as further strengthening public financial management and revenue administration and buttressing the financial safety net.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Macedonia discusses that after a protracted political crisis, the economy has entered a period of solid growth and stability. Over the recent years, the authorities have reviewed the reform momentum, with crucial institutional and governance reforms and efforts to make public finances more sustainable and equitable. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2020. Lower taxes and higher pensions and wages?including public sector and minimum wages?are expected to provide a further, albeit one-off, stimulus to consumption. Export and investment growth would remain robust but slow somewhat, reflecting weak growth in trading partners. An ambitious consolidation is needed to rebuild fiscal policy space and re-orient public spending toward investment. Reforms to address key labor market and institutional weaknesses will help lift medium-term growth and speed up income convergence. Although growth has been solid in the past two decades, it has not been enough to substantially narrow North Macedonia’s large income gap with the European Union. In order to accelerate convergence, it is essential to continue reforms to improve the public administration, rule of law, and control of corruption.

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the six Western Balkan (WB6) economies depends on greater economic competitiveness. Although the gap is closing gradually, the standards of living in WB6 are well below those of the OECD and EU. Accelerating the rate of socio-economic convergence will require a holistic and growth oriented approach to policy making. This is the fourth study of the region (formerly under the title 'Competitiveness in South East Europe') and it comprehensively assesses policy reforms in the WB6 economies across 15 policy areas key to strengthening their competitiveness. It enables WB6 economies to compare economic performance against regional peers, as well as EU-OECD good practices and standards, and to design future policies based on rich evidence and actionable policy recommendations. The regional profile presents assessment findings across five policy clusters crucial to accelerating socio-economic convergence of the WB6 by fostering regional co-operation: business environment, skills, infrastructure and connectivity, digital transformation and greening. Economy-specific profiles complement the regional assessment, offering each WB6 economy an in-depth analysis of their policies supporting competitiveness. They also track the implementation of the previous 2021 study's recommendations and provide additional ones tailored to the economies’ evolving challenges. These recommendations aim to inform structural economic reforms and facilitate the region’s socio-economic convergence towards the standards of the EU and OECD.

North Macedonia's economy has been hit by two large external shocks. While recovering from the pandemic, the outlook deteriorated again following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sharply rising energy and food prices. Given high dependence on energy imports, the external financing need has increased, while at the same time, global financial conditions have tightened, increasing the cost of market financing.

Kosovo has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite policy support, economic activity is estimated to have fallen 6 percent in 2020 on account of the combined effect of strict domestic containment measures and international travel restrictions. The fiscal deficit increased to 7.7 percent of GDP, given the large fall in tax revenues and the implementation of mitigation and recovery measures of 4.2 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have increased to 7.5 percent of GDP mainly due to a large decline in diaspora-related inflows, most notably in tourism. Gross international reserves declined but remain adequate in part due to the purchase under the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) in April 2020 and the use of other external financing. Banks have weathered the recession well to date, and the high pre-COVID19 liquidity levels and ample capital buffers bode well for the system’s stability.

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights slower growth in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia following a solid economic recovery since the global financial crisis. Growth slowed to 2.4 percent in 2016 and contracted by 0.9 percent in the first half of 2017. Economic activity has been supported by private consumption and exports, while negative effects from prolonged political instability have restrained investment and slowed down corporate credit growth. Inflation has gradually picked up, after staying negative during the past few years. Public debt is projected to rise to 47 percent of GDP in 2017. Currently, the government is in the process of preparing the draft economic program.

Past efforts to build policy buffers and a broadly appropriate macroeconomic policy mix during 2020–21 have helped Albania withstand the impact of consecutive shocks since 2019. Growth is expected to remain solid in 2022 before decelerating in 2023, and inflation is projected to return to the central bank’s target only in 2024. There is considerable uncertainty. Risks to growth are tilted to the downside and risks to inflation are to the upside.