The language can represent the chance that facts hold and events occur at various times. It can represent the chance that actions and other events affect the future. The model of action distinguishes between action feasibility, executability, and effects. Using this distinction, a notion of expected utility for acts that may not be feasible is defined. This notion is used to reason about the chance that trying a plan will achieve a given goal. An algorithm for the problem of building construction planning is developed and the logic is used to prove the algorithm correct."

"This monograph integrates AI and decision-theoretic approaches to the representation of planning problems by developing a first-order logic of time, chance, and action for representing and reasoning about plans. The semantics of the logic incorporates intuitive properties of time, chance, and action central to the planning problem. The logical language integrates both modal and probabilistic constructs and allows quantification over time points, probability values, and domain individuals. The language can represent the chance that facts hold and events occur at various times and that actions and other events affect the future. An algorithm for the problem of building construction planning is developed and the logic is used to prove the algorithm correct."--PUBLISHER'S WEBSITE.

Uncertainty Proceedings 1994

Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the air-delivered munitions mix challenge. RDM is quantitative, decision support methodology designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity. This proof-of-concept demonstration suggests that RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.

An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Written by some of the founders of complexity theory and complexity theories of cities (CTC), this Handbook expertly guides the reader through over forty years of intertwined developments: the emergence of general theories of complex self-organized systems and the consequent emergence of CTC.