Productivity growth in Japan, as in most advanced economies, has moderated. This paper finds supportive evidence for the important role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in explaining Japan’s modest productivity growth. Results show a substantial dispersion in firm-level productivity growth across sectors and even across firms within the same sector. SMEs, on average, exhibit lower productivity growth than non-SMEs in Japan, with smaller and older SMEs showing particularly low productivity growth. Estimates suggest that boosting productivity growth in all of the worst-performing SMEs could improve overall productivity growth by up to 1.8 percentage points. The SME credit guarantee system, SME financing constraints, demographic factors, and lack of intangible capital investment are discussed as contributors to the slow productivity growth of Japan’s small and old SMEs.

The rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population will dominate economic policy making in coming decades—impelling a fresh look at the objectives and tools of Abenomics. Six years of Abenomics have yielded some important results, but achieving sustained high growth and durable reflation, while also tackling debt sustainability and a shifting global economic landscape, will require strengthened policies.

The report Measuring Progress towards Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in Japan is the outcome of a collaboration with the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry which aims to monitor progress in key areas crucial to realising the Japanese government’s vision for a “New Form of Capitalism”.

Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.

Among the many books on why some nations prosper better than others, this is the first such focusing this theme on Japan in many years. And it is the first in English to show how a revival of Japan's past entrepreneurship will promote broader economic recovery, and written in a lively style, this book will appeal to laypersons, scholars, businesspeople, and policymakers alike. Adding to the appeal is that the book demonstrates how current trends give Japan its best opportunity for recovery in a generation. At the same time, its discussion of the forces opposing an entrepreneurial revival adds both realism and drama. There truly is a contest of forces for control of Japan's economic future. On top of that, the book will attract those interested in broader themes ranging from generational attitudes and gender relations to culture and technology.

Japan has many unique strengths, but it also faces numerous challenges, many of which are related to population ageing. Rapid demographic change is projected to reduce Japan’s population by one-quarter by 2060 while increasing the share of elderly people from 29% of the total population to 38%, which would be the highest share among advanced countries. This book analyses the Japanese economy and the challenges it faces, and suggests policies to promote wellbeing, high living standards, fiscal sustainability, social inclusion and environmental sustainability. The book’s 24 chapters focus on key aspects of Japan’s economy, including the labour market, innovation, education, women in the workforce, corporate governance, small and medium-sized enterprises, the service sector, agriculture, fiscal and monetary policy, income distribution and policies to address climate change. The volume aims to increase understanding of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy and a key player in the global economy. It will assist policymakers and serve as a resource for academics and students of economics and public policy. As Japan is a front-runner in population ageing, the book’s analysis and policy recommendations are highly relevant to other countries that are, or soon will be, facing similar challenges.

The public debt crisis in Europe has shaken the confidence not just in the Euro, but in the European model. Aging and uneconomical Europeans are being squeezed between innovative Americans and efficient Asians, it is said. With debt and demographics dragging down them down, one hears that European economies will not grow much unless radically new ways are discovered. The end of complacency in Europe is a good thing, but this loss of confidence could be dangerous. The danger is that in a rush to rejuvenate growth, the attractive attributes of the European development model could be abandoned along with the weak. In fact, the European growth model has many strong points and enviable accomplishments. One can say without exaggeration that Europe had invented a convergence machine , taking in poor countries and helping them become high income economies. World Bank research has identified 27 countries that have grown from middle-income to high income since 1987: a few thanks to the discovery and exploitation of massive natural resources (e.g.: oil in Oman and Trinidad and Tobago), several others like Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, embracing aggressive export-led strategies which involved working and saving a lot, postponing political liberties, and looking out only for themselves. But half of the countries that have grown from middle income to high income Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia are actually in Europe. This is why the European model was so attractive and unique, and why with some well designed efforts it ought to be made right again.