A self-contained examination of all aspects of statistical evidence evaluation in forensic science, from theory to concrete applications.

Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology provides a practical guide for forensic scientists, primarily anthropologists and pathologists, on how to design studies, how to choose and apply statistical approaches, and how to interpret statistical outcomes in the forensic practice. As with other forensic, medical and biological disciplines, statistics have become increasingly important in forensic anthropology and legal medicine, but there is not a single book, which specifically addresses the needs of forensic anthropologists in relation to the research undertaken in the field and the interpretation of research outcomes and case findings within the setting of legal proceedings. The book includes the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for the research and the interpretation of findings in forensic anthropology, as well as general chapters on study design and statistical approaches addressing measurement errors and reliability. Scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, pathology and related disciplines is used throughout. Additionally, Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology facilitates sufficient understanding of the statistical procedures and data interpretation based on statistical outcomes and models, which helps the reader confidently present their work within the forensic context, either in the form of case reports for legal purposes or as research publications for the scientific community. - Contains the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for forensic anthropology research and the interpretation of findings - Provides examples of study designs and their statistical solutions, partly following the layout of scientific manuscripts on common topics in the field - Includes scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, legal medicine and related disciplines

In 1992 the National Research Council issued DNA Technology in Forensic Science, a book that documented the state of the art in this emerging field. Recently, this volume was brought to worldwide attention in the murder trial of celebrity O. J. Simpson. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence reports on developments in population genetics and statistics since the original volume was published. The committee comments on statements in the original book that proved controversial or that have been misapplied in the courts. This volume offers recommendations for handling DNA samples, performing calculations, and other aspects of using DNA as a forensic toolâ€"modifying some recommendations presented in the 1992 volume. The update addresses two major areas: Determination of DNA profiles. The committee considers how laboratory errors (particularly false matches) can arise, how errors might be reduced, and how to take into account the fact that the error rate can never be reduced to zero. Interpretation of a finding that the DNA profile of a suspect or victim matches the evidence DNA. The committee addresses controversies in population genetics, exploring the problems that arise from the mixture of groups and subgroups in the American population and how this substructure can be accounted for in calculating frequencies. This volume examines statistical issues in interpreting frequencies as probabilities, including adjustments when a suspect is found through a database search. The committee includes a detailed discussion of what its recommendations would mean in the courtroom, with numerous case citations. By resolving several remaining issues in the evaluation of this increasingly important area of forensic evidence, this technical update will be important to forensic scientists and population geneticistsâ€"and helpful to attorneys, judges, and others who need to understand DNA and the law. Anyone working in laboratories and in the courts or anyone studying this issue should own this book.

The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass Interpretation Fibres Interpretation Bayes’ Nets The title presents comprehensive coverage of the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It is written with the assumption of a modest mathematical background and is illustrated throughout with up-to-date examples from a forensic science background. The clarity of exposition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, lawyers and other professionals in related fields interested in the quantitative assessment and evaluation of evidence. 'There can be no doubt that the appreciation of some evidence in a court of law has been greatly enhanced by the sound use of statistical ideas and one can be confident that the next decade will see further developments, during which time this book will admirably serve those who have cause to use statistics in forensic science.' D.V. Lindley

Bayesian Networks “This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation.” Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science Second Edition Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates diffculties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

This text is an accessible, student-friendly introduction to the wide range of mathematical and statistical tools needed by the forensic scientist in the analysis, interpretation and presentation of experimental measurements. From a basis of high school mathematics, the book develops essential quantitative analysis techniques within the context of a broad range of forensic applications. This clearly structured text focuses on developing core mathematical skills together with an understanding of the calculations associated with the analysis of experimental work, including an emphasis on the use of graphs and the evaluation of uncertainties. Through a broad study of probability and statistics, the reader is led ultimately to the use of Bayesian approaches to the evaluation of evidence within the court. In every section, forensic applications such as ballistics trajectories, post-mortem cooling, aspects of forensic pharmacokinetics, the matching of glass evidence, the formation of bloodstains and the interpretation of DNA profiles are discussed and examples of calculations are worked through. In every chapter there are numerous self-assessment problems to aid student learning. Its broad scope and forensically focused coverage make this book an essential text for students embarking on any degree course in forensic science or forensic analysis, as well as an invaluable reference for post-graduate students and forensic professionals. Key features: Offers a unique mix of mathematics and statistics topics, specifically tailored to a forensic science undergraduate degree. All topics illustrated with examples from the forensic science discipline. Written in an accessible, student-friendly way to engage interest and enhance learning and confidence. Assumes only a basic high-school level prior mathematical knowledge.

Now in its second edition, Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation is the most comprehensive resource for DNA casework available today. Written by leaders in the fields of biology and statistics, including a contribution from Peter Gill, the father of DNA analysis, the book emphasizes the interpretation of test results and provides the necessary formulae in an easily accessible manner. This latest edition is fully updated and includes current and emerging techniques in this fast-moving field. The book begins by reviewing all pertinent biology, and then provides information on every aspect of DNA analysis. This includes modern interpretation methods and contemporary population genetic models available for estimating DNA frequencies or likelihood ratios. Following a chapter on procedures for validating databases, the text presents overviews and performance assessments of both modern sampling uncertainty methods and current paternity testing techniques, including new guidelines on paternity testing in alignment with the International Society for Forensic Genetics. Later chapters discuss the latest methods for mixture analysis, LCN (ultra trace) analysis and non-autosomal (mito, X, and Y) DNA analysis. The text concludes with an overview of procedures for disaster victim identification and information on DNA intelligence databases. Highlights of the second edition include: New information about PCR processes, heterozygote balance and back and forward stuttering New information on the interpretation of low template DNA, drop models and continuous models Additional coverage of lineage marker subpopulation effects, mixtures and combinations with autosomal markers This authoritative book provides a link among the biological, forensic, and interpretative domains of the DNA profiling field. It continues to serve as an invaluable resource that allows forensic scientists, technicians, molecular biologists and attorneys to use forensic DNA evidence to its greatest potential.