Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity and Structure with an Analog Ensemble
Title | Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity and Structure with an Analog Ensemble PDF eBook |
Author | William E. Lewis |
Publisher | |
Pages | 8 |
Release | 2018 |
Genre | Cyclones |
ISBN |
Toward Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Title | Toward Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts PDF eBook |
Author | |
Publisher | |
Pages | |
Release | 2009 |
Genre | |
ISBN |
By Jonathan Robert Moskaitis.
Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Uncertainty Using a Grand Ensemble of Ensemble Prediction Systems
Title | Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Uncertainty Using a Grand Ensemble of Ensemble Prediction Systems PDF eBook |
Author | Douglas W. Pearman |
Publisher | |
Pages | 45 |
Release | 2011 |
Genre | Cyclones |
ISBN |
The skill of a combined grand ensemble (GE), which is constructed from three operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPS), is evaluated with respect to the probability forecast of a tropical cyclone (TC) being within a specified area. Anisotropic probability ellipses are defined from the GE to contain 68% of the ensemble members. Forecast reliability is based on whether the forecast verifying position is within the ellipse. A sharpness parameter is based on the size of the GE-based probability ellipse relative to other operational forecast probability ellipses. For the 2010 Atlantic TC season, results indicate that the GE ellipses exhibit a high degree of reliability whereas the operational probability circle tends to be over-dispersive. Additionally, the GE ellipse tends to be sharper than the operational product for forecast intervals beyond 48 hours. The size and shape of the GE ellipses varied with TC track types, which suggests that information about the physics of the flow-dependent system is retained whereas isotropic probability ellipses may not reflect variability associated with track type. It is concluded that the GE probability ellipse demonstrates utility for combined EPS to enhance probabilistic forecasts for use as TC-related decision aids, as there is a potential for reducing the sizes of warning areas.
Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Title | Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions PDF eBook |
Author | U.C. Mohanty |
Publisher | Springer |
Pages | 762 |
Release | 2016-11-21 |
Genre | Science |
ISBN | 9402408967 |
This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting
Title | Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting PDF eBook |
Author | Eric Hendricks |
Publisher | Frontiers Media SA |
Pages | 260 |
Release | 2023-09-29 |
Genre | Science |
ISBN | 2832534554 |
Evaluating Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Track Error Distributions for Use in Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Distribution
Title | Evaluating Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Track Error Distributions for Use in Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Distribution PDF eBook |
Author | Jay M. Neese |
Publisher | |
Pages | 87 |
Release | 2010 |
Genre | Meteorology |
ISBN |
This thesis investigates whether the National Hurricane Center (NHC) operational product for producing probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) wind distributions could be further improved by examining the distributions of track errors it draws upon to calculate probabilities. The track spread/skill relationship for several global ensemble prediction system forecasts is examined as a condition for a description of a full probability distribution function. The 2007, 2008, and 2009 NHC official track forecasts are compared to the ensemble prediction system model along-, cross-, and forecast-track errors. Significant differences in statistical properties were then identified among the groups to determine whether conditioning based on geographic location was warranted. Examination of each regional distribution interval suggests that differences in distributions existed for along-track and cross-track errors. Because errors for ensemble mean and deterministic forecasts typically have larger mean errors and larger variance than official forecast errors, it is unlikely that independent error distributions based on these models would refine the PDFs used in the probabilistic model. However, this should be tested with a sensitivity analysis and verified with the probability swath. Overall, conditional formatting suggests that the NHC probability product may be improved if the Monte Carlo (MC) model would draw from refined distributions of track errors based on TC location.
A Probabilistic Forecasting Model of Tropical Cyclone-generated Storm Surge for a Straight Coastline
Title | A Probabilistic Forecasting Model of Tropical Cyclone-generated Storm Surge for a Straight Coastline PDF eBook |
Author | Chung-Chieng Lai |
Publisher | |
Pages | 302 |
Release | 1984 |
Genre | Probability forecasts (Meteorology) |
ISBN |