A revised edition that explores random numbers, probability, and statistical inference at an introductory mathematical level Written in an engaging and entertaining manner, the revised and updated second edition of Probably Not continues to offer an informative guide to probability and prediction. The expanded second edition contains problem and solution sets. In addition, the book’s illustrative examples reveal how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand and explains when we only think we know something. The author introduces the principles of probability and explains probability distribution functions. The book covers combined and conditional probabilities and contains a new section on Bayes Theorem and Bayesian Statistics, which features some simple examples including the Presecutor’s Paradox, and Bayesian vs. Frequentist thinking about statistics. New to this edition is a chapter on Benford’s Law that explores measuring the compliance and financial fraud detection using Benford’s Law. This book: Contains relevant mathematics and examples that demonstrate how to use the concepts presented Features a new chapter on Benford’s Law that explains why we find Benford’s law upheld in so many, but not all, natural situations Presents updated Life insurance tables Contains updates on the Gantt Chart example that further develops the discussion of random events Offers a companion site featuring solutions to the problem sets within the book Written for mathematics and statistics students and professionals, the updated edition of Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition combines the mathematics of probability with real-world examples. LAWRENCE N. DWORSKY, PhD, is a retired Vice President of the Technical Staff and Director of Motorola’s Components Research Laboratory in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. He is the author of Introduction to Numerical Electrostatics Using MATLAB from Wiley.

Probability is the bedrock of machine learning. You cannot develop a deep understanding and application of machine learning without it. Cut through the equations, Greek letters, and confusion, and discover the topics in probability that you need to know. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons, you will discover the importance of probability to machine learning, Bayesian probability, entropy, density estimation, maximum likelihood, and much more.

Conventional applications of neural networks usually predict a single value as a function of given inputs. In forecasting, for example, a standard objective is to predict the future value of some entity of interest on the basis of a time series of past measurements or observations. Typical training schemes aim to minimise the sum of squared deviations between predicted and actual values (the 'targets'), by which, ideally, the network learns the conditional mean of the target given the input. If the underlying conditional distribution is Gaus sian or at least unimodal, this may be a satisfactory approach. However, for a multimodal distribution, the conditional mean does not capture the relevant features of the system, and the prediction performance will, in general, be very poor. This calls for a more powerful and sophisticated model, which can learn the whole conditional probability distribution. Chapter 1 demonstrates that even for a deterministic system and 'be nign' Gaussian observational noise, the conditional distribution of a future observation, conditional on a set of past observations, can become strongly skewed and multimodal. In Chapter 2, a general neural network structure for modelling conditional probability densities is derived, and it is shown that a universal approximator for this extended task requires at least two hidden layers. A training scheme is developed from a maximum likelihood approach in Chapter 3, and the performance ofthis method is demonstrated on three stochastic time series in chapters 4 and 5.

A description of the development and application of a stochastic model for predicting the probability distribution of the dissolved-oxygen deficit at points in a stream downstream from a waste source.

One of the hardest questions that mathematics teachers have to answer is "Why?" Schoolroom sums are crucial in learning the awesome power of mathematics, but they are often a world away from how the knowledge is applied and where it came from. Inside Mathematics: Probability & Statistics is there to fill that gap. What are the chances of that? Mathematics can solve that mystery for you using a set of ideas that grew out of an aristocratic gambler's bafflement at betting on complex dice games. In stepped the mathematical giants of Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal, who worked together to create what is now called probability theory. Gamblers need not rejoice in this powerful theory; it shows that the casino always wins in the end. The ideas of probability have since found many better uses elsewhere. For example, they are at work in the mathematics that describes the quantum world and drives the push for artificial intelligence. The mathematics of chance is involved in understanding systems where a myriad data points combine. Statistics is the branch of mathematics that wrangles that data and tames it into meaningful knowledge. It then allows us to get ever better at modeling complex phenomena, from the formation of stars and the path of a hurricane to the rise and fall of the markets. Inside Mathematics: Probability & Statistics introduces the reader to these awesome mathematical powers by telling the stories of who figured them out. They include a cavalry officer hoping to reduce injuries from horse kicks, Charles Darwin's cousin who discovered that we make the best guesses when we work together, and computers that are built to program themselves. Written to engage and enthuse young people, Inside Mathematics shows readers how the ideas of long-dead geniuses have ended up in their homework assignments. Probability & Statistics: How Mathematics Can Predict the Future changes the question from "Why?" to "What's next?" Arranged chronologically to show how ideas in mathematics evolved.

What is the probability that something will occur, and how is that probability altered by a change in an independent variable? To answer these questions, Tim Futing Liao introduces a systematic way of interpreting commonly used probability models. Since much of what social scientists study is measured in noncontinuous ways and, therefore, cannot be analyzed using a classical regression model, it becomes necessary to model the likelihood that an event will occur. This book explores these models first by reviewing each probability model and then by presenting a systematic way for interpreting the results from each.