This report acknowledges that deciding the right time for fiscal consolidation requires making a fine judgement about the resilience of the recovery. It emphasises that a plan to restore the health of the public finances must deal with the structural deficit. While the Treasury aims to cut the deficit from 9% of GDP to 3.6% of GDP in four years, the expert witnesses who examined it all criticised the document for not providing enough information about how this will be achieved. Future Budgets and PBRs should attempt to quantify the downside risks around the structural deficit forecast. There will be uncertainty in these figures, but they are produced as part of the Spending Review process so there appears to be no argument against their publication. Similarly the Bank of England publishes forecasts showing the possible range of inflation rates and publishing information about debt interest on a similar basis would be useful. The recession appears to have had substantially less impact on the labour market than might have been feared, though concern remains about the level of youth unemployment. Repossessions have been far lower than expected however it is recommended that the Treasury proceeds cautiously over the timing of removal of Government support in this area. We do not want to see a return to the times of easy credit, but the Government needs to remain aware of the risk that lending will not support renewed private sector growth as the public sector retrenches. The purpose of the tax on bank bonuses is to change behaviour so that banks increase their capital, rather than providing large discretionary payments to employees. The next Parliament needs to examine the effectiveness of any regime introduced by the Financial Services Bill, in terms both of its success in altering bank behaviour, and of its effect on the competitiveness of the UK financial sector

The 2008 Pre-Budget Report presents updated assessments and forecasts of the economy and public finances, and reports on how in the face of major global economic shocks the Government intends to support the economy, businesses and households through these uncertain times while delivering its long-term goals. Measures announced include: temporarily reducing the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 15 per cent from1 December 2008 to 31 December 2009; bringing forward £3 billion of capital spending from 2010-11 including introducing a green stimulus supporting low carbon growth and jobs; introducing a new additional higher rate of income tax of 45 per cent for those with incomes above £150,000 from April 2011; increasing national insurance contributions by 0.5 per cent from April 2011; increasing alcohol and tobacco duties; a two pence per litre increase in fuel duty from 1 December). Immediate action to help those individuals and businesses most affected by the economic downturn include: increases in the income tax personal allowance; bringing forward the increase in Child Benefit; increases of the Child Tax Credit and a payment of £60 to all pensioners; help through mortgage rescue and Support for Mortgage Interest schemes for eligible homeowners in difficulty and a commitment from major mortgage lenders not to initiate repossession action within at least three months of an owner-occupier going into arrears; an additional £1.3 billion to support for the unemployed to find a new job; measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises facing credit constraints; a new HMRC Business Payment Support Service to allow businesses in temporary financial difficulty to pay their HMRC tax bills on a timetable they can afford; and more generous tax relief for businesses now making losses and the modification of a number of planned tax reforms, including vehicle excise duty, air passenger duty, and the deferral of the increase in the small companies' rate of corporation tax.

Budget 2009 : Eighth report of session 2008-09, Vol. 2: Oral and written Evidence

The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. Details announced include: an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for 2006-07 with a forecast of 2.75 to 3.25 per cent for 2007-08; an inflation rate of two per cent this year; and public sector borrowing on course for a 16 billion surplus over the economic cycle ending in 2010-11, with net borrowing set at 37 billion for this year and 36 billion next year, falling to 23 billion in the year to 2010-11.

This report examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the fiscal projections within the 2010 Budget (HC 451, session 2009-10, ISBN 9780102964639) that are submitted by the Treasury for examination, along with a review of assumptions on the VAT gap, tobacco revenues, factor shares in national income and funding (debt increase)

Incorporating HCP 1031-i-iii, session 2006-07. The Pre-Budget Report 2007 published in October 2007 (Cm. 7227, ISBN 9780101722728)

The Chancellor of the Exchequer asked the National Audit Office to audit two new assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2009 Budget (HC 407, session 2008-09, ISBN 9780102959161). Firstly, to assess if the 2008 Pre-Budget report assumption for the trend rate of growth, allowing for a downward adjustment to the trend output level of around 4 per cent, for the post-2006 period, together with the further downward adjustment at Budget 2009 to the trend output level of around 1 per cent, is reasonable and cautious. Secondly, to examine whether the approach used by the Treasury to produce estimates of the fiscal aggregates adjusted for the effects of the economic cycle is reasonable.