The increasing gap between developed and developing world will be one of the most important themes of the 21st century. The contributions contained in this volume take a multidisciplinary approach to the problem, offering a comprehensive review of the theoretical issues and empirical findings that relate to the complex and multidirectional link between poverty and demographic behaviours and outcomes in the contemporary developing world. The starting point of the volume is an exact definition of poverty. The contributors go on to analyse in the detail its causes and effects, both at the micro and macro level, concentrating on those factors and consequences which relate more directly to the demographic sphere. Population growth, household structure and labour, fertility, AIDS, urbanization, migration, and mortality are amongst the areas covered, with the major themes discussed and elaborated in an introductory overview chapter.

The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data weretoo weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result, economists as a group have not been clear or conclusive.This volume, which is based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic--economic relationships, and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular,evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a pattern in recent decades that was not evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggeststhat changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as theAsian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causalrelationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create apath out of poverty for many families.Population Matters represents an important further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.

The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data were too weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result, economists as a group have not been clear or conclusive. This volume, which is based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic—economic relationships, and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular, evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a pattern in recent decades that was not evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggests that changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as the Asian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causal relationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families. Population Matters represents an important further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.

Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba, and Costa Rica shows, however, that birth rates can fall rapidly in low-income groups and countries where basic health care, education and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available. Assuming that annual population growth averages 2.2 percent for 1975-2000 (down from 2.5 percent for developing countries in 1960-75) and total income growth rises to 6.2 percent per year, the numbers of poor people are projected to decline to 600 million in 2000. An average 1.9 percent population growth rate, now considered more likely for developing countries, would further reduce the number. But slower than expected economic growth in the 1980s could raise the number unless special efforts are made to ensure more equitable income distribution and improvements in services to the poor in developing countries.