Planning Under Uncertainty

Planning Under Uncertainty
Title Planning Under Uncertainty PDF eBook
Author Gerd Infanger
Publisher Boyd & Fraser Publishing Company
Pages 168
Release 1994
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Title Decision Making Under Uncertainty PDF eBook
Author Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher MIT Press
Pages 350
Release 2015-07-24
Genre Computers
ISBN 0262331713

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An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Title Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty PDF eBook
Author Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher Springer
Pages 408
Release 2019-04-04
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 3030052524

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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty

Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty
Title Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty PDF eBook
Author Robert J. Lempert
Publisher Rand Corporation
Pages 109
Release 2016-01-29
Genre History
ISBN 0833091670

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Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the munitions mix challenge, to demonstrate how RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.

Artificial Intelligence Today

Artificial Intelligence Today
Title Artificial Intelligence Today PDF eBook
Author Michael J. Wooldridge
Publisher Springer Science & Business Media
Pages 489
Release 1999-08-18
Genre Computers
ISBN 3540664289

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Artificial Intelligence is one of the most fascinating and unusual areas of academic study to have emerged this century. For some, AI is a true scientific discipline, that has made important and fundamental contributions to the use of computation for our understanding of nature and phenomena of the human mind; for others, AI is the black art of computer science. Artificial Intelligence Today provides a showcase for the field of AI as it stands today. The editors invited contributions both from traditional subfields of AI, such as theorem proving, as well as from subfields that have emerged more recently, such as agents, AI and the Internet, or synthetic actors. The papers themselves are a mixture of more specialized research papers and authorative survey papers. The secondary purpose of this book is to celebrate Springer-Verlag's Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence series.

Planning Algorithms

Planning Algorithms
Title Planning Algorithms PDF eBook
Author Steven M. LaValle
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Pages 844
Release 2006-05-29
Genre Computers
ISBN 9780521862059

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Planning algorithms are impacting technical disciplines and industries around the world, including robotics, computer-aided design, manufacturing, computer graphics, aerospace applications, drug design, and protein folding. Written for computer scientists and engineers with interests in artificial intelligence, robotics, or control theory, this is the only book on this topic that tightly integrates a vast body of literature from several fields into a coherent source for teaching and reference in a wide variety of applications. Difficult mathematical material is explained through hundreds of examples and illustrations.

Biomass to Biofuel Supply Chain Design and Planning under Uncertainty

Biomass to Biofuel Supply Chain Design and Planning under Uncertainty
Title Biomass to Biofuel Supply Chain Design and Planning under Uncertainty PDF eBook
Author Mir Saman Pishvaee
Publisher Academic Press
Pages 286
Release 2020-11-25
Genre Technology & Engineering
ISBN 0128209003

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Biomass to Biofuel Supply Chain Design and Planning under Uncertainty: Concepts and Quantitative Methods explores the design and optimization of biomass-to-biofuel supply chains for commercial-scale implementation of biofuel projects by considering the problems and challenges encountered in real supply chains. By offering a fresh approach and discussing a wide range of quantitative methods, the book enables researchers and practitioners to develop hybrid methods that integrate the advantages and features of two or more methods in one decision-making framework for the efficient optimization of biofuel supply chains, especially for complex supply chain models. Combining supply chain management and modeling techniques in a single volume, the book is beneficial for graduate students who no longer need to consult subject-specific books alongside mathematical modeling textbooks. The book consists of two main parts. The first part describes the key components of biofuel supply chains, including biomass production, harvesting, collection, storage, preprocessing, conversion, transportation, and distribution. It also provides a comprehensive review of the concepts, problems, and opportunities associated with biofuel supply chains, such as types and properties of the feedstocks and fuel products, decision-making levels, sustainability concepts, uncertainty analysis and risk management, as well as integration of biomass supply chain with other supply chains. The second part focuses on modeling and optimization of biomass-to-biofuel supply chains under uncertainty, using different quantitative methods to determine optimal design. - Proposes a general multi-level framework for the optimal design and operation of biomass-to-biofuel supply chains through quantitative analysis and modeling, including different biomass and waste biomass feedstock, production pathways, technology options, transportation modes, and final products - Explores how modeling and optimization tools can be utilized to address sustainability issues in biofuel supply chains by simultaneously assessing and identifying sustainable solutions - Presents several case studies with different regional constraints to evaluate the practical applicability of different optimization methods and compares their performance in real-world situations - Includes General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) codes for solving biomass supply chain optimization problems discussed in different chapters