Abstract: Accelerating economic growth in Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) remains an elusive task. While the region performed relatively well in the post-global financial crisis period, over the last five years obstacles to growth have become more evident and new challenges have emerged. In response, the region has strengthened macro-financial frameworks but more progress will be required to pave the way to sustained growth and prosperity. This book considers the structural factors underlying the region’s growth outlook and assesses its macroeconomic and financial challenges to help shape the policy agenda going forward. The book first identifies the structural determinants of growth in the region related to: capital formation; employment; demographic factors, including immigration; productivity; and violence. It then highlights the importance of creating fiscal space through the design and implementation of fiscal rules and mechanisms to increase accountability (better quality of public spending, adequate policies to reduce income inequality and sustainable retirement plans). Finally, it presents recent evidence on the importance of a supportive financial sector for growth (including through financial inclusion and development).

This is an excerpt from Paving the Way to Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic edited by Kimberly Beaton, Roberto Garcia Saltos, and Lorenzo Figliuoli. Over the past three decades, countries in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic have experienced sustained economic transfor-mation. The region has moved away from its rural and agricultural past to a modern and urban present and has significantly integrated its econ-omies regionally and globally. Many factors have shaped the region’s economic performance and are expected to contribute to its future development. The book aims to foster policy dialogue and contribute to the efforts to address the region’s unique challenges. The first part looks at the region’s growth with a view to understanding how structural determinants have contributed to the region’s uneven gains and the resulting priorities to strengthen the foundations of growth. The second part of the book high-lights the importance of addressing the region’s fiscal challenges and supporting growth and improved social outcomes. Finally, the third part of the book emphasizes the importance of a supportive financial sector for growth, including through financial inclusion and development. This excerpt is taken from uncorrected page proofs. Please check quota-tions and attributions against the final published volume.

This paper focuses on several IMF publications published in the winter of year 2018. Realizing Indonesia’s Economic Potential book uncovers some of the forces that are likely to shape Indonesia’s economy. It analyses the constraints to growth, propose options to boost economic growth, and explore key issues policymakers will need to handle in the future. The ASEAN Way: Sustaining Growth and Stability book provides a comprehensive account of how Association of Southeast Asian Nations, its individual members and as a group, rose above its worst regional financial crisis 20 years ago, to become one of the most resilient in the face of the worst global financial crisis just a decade later. The challenges faced and the policy responses taken, chronicled and analyzed in this study, can hopefully provide further lessons as we face a new global policy paradigm. It is a must-read for academics, the financial community, and policymakers alike.

Guatemala: Selected Issues

After a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic and continued resilience in early 2023, economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is softening as the effect of tighter policies to combat inflation is taking hold and the external environment is weakening. The early and swift monetary tightening across the region since 2021, together with the withdrawal of most of the pandemic fiscal stimulus and the reversal of external price pressures, have helped put headline inflation on a downward trajectory. Core inflation has also started to ease, as price pressures are becoming less generalized, although it remains elevated amid strong labor markets and positive output gaps in some countries. Banking systems have weathered the rise in interest rates well and are generally healthy, though credit to the private sector is decelerating amid tighter supply conditions and weaker demand.

This paper presents a structural model of crime and output. Individuals make an occupational choice between criminal and legal activities. The return to becoming a criminal is endogenously determined in a general equilibrium together with the level of crime and economic activity. I calibrate the model to the Northern Triangle countries and conduct several policy experiments. I find that for a country like Honduras crime reduces GDP by about 3 percent through its negative effect on employment indirectly, in addition to direct costs of crime associated with material losses, which are in line with literature estimates. Also, the model generates a non-linear effect of crime on output and vice versa. On average I find that a one percent increase in output per capita implies about 1⁄2 percent decline in crime, while a decrease of about 5 percent in crime leads to about one percent increase in output per capita. These positive effects are larger if the initial level of crime is larger.

The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.