This study provides supplemental material to an earlier study concerning the relationship between spotless days and the sunspot cycle. Our previous study, Technical Publication (TP)-2005-213608 determined the timing and size of sunspot minimum and maximum for the new sunspot cycle, relative to the occurrence of the first spotless day during the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and the last spotless day during the rising portion of the new cycle. Because the number of spotless days (NSD) rapidly increases as the cycle nears sunspot minimum and rapidly decreases thereafter, the size and timing of sunspot minimum and maximum might be more accurately determined using a higher threshold for comparison, rather than using the first and last spotless day occurrences. It is this aspect that is investigated more thoroughly in this TP.

Spotless days are examined as a predictor for the size and timing of a sunspot cycle. For cycles 16-23 the first spotless day for a new cycle, which occurs during the decline of the old cycle, is found to precede minimum amplitude for the new cycle by about approximately equal to 34 mo, having a range of 25-40 mo. Reports indicate that the first spotless day for cycle 24 occurred in January 2004, suggesting that minimum amplitude for cycle 24 should be expected before April 2007, probably sometime during the latter half of 2006. If true, then cycle 23 will be classified as a cycle of shorter period, inferring further that cycle 24 likely will be a cycle of larger than average minimum and maximum amplitudes and faster than average rise, peaking sometime in 2010.Wilson, Robert M. and Hathaway, David H.Marshall Space Flight CenterSUNSPOT CYCLE; SUN; ANNUAL VARIATIONS; EARTH SCIENCES; AMPLITUDES; PARAMETERIZATION

In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier. Wilson, Robert M. and Hathaway, David H. Marshall Space Flight Center SUNSPOTS; SUNSPOT CYCLE; ACTIVITY CYCLES (BIOLOGY); LATITUDE; TROPICAL REGIONS; MEAN; POLAR REGIONS

A collection of papers edited by four experts in the field, this book sets out to describe the way solar activity is manifested in observations of the solar interior, the photosphere, the chromosphere, the corona and the heliosphere. The 11-year solar activity cycle, more generally known as the sunspot cycle, is a fundamental property of the Sun. This phenomenon is the generation and evolution of magnetic fields in the Sun’s convection zone, the photosphere. It is only by the careful enumeration and description of the phenomena and their variations that one can clarify their interdependences. The sunspot cycle has been tracked back about four centuries, and it has been recognized that to make this data set a really useful tool in understanding how the activity cycle works and how it can be predicted, a very careful and detailed effort is needed to generate sunspot numbers. This book deals with this topic, together with several others that present related phenomena that all indicate the physical processes that take place in the Sun and its exterior environment. The reviews in the book also present the latest theoretical and modelling studies that attempt to explain the activity cycle. It remains true, as has been shown in the unexpected characteristics of the first two solar cycles in the 21st century, that predictability remains a serious challenge. Nevertheless, the highly expert and detailed reviews in this book, using the very best solar observations from both ground- and space based telescopes, provide the best possible report on what is known and what is yet to be discovered. Originally published in Space Science Reviews, Vol 186, Issues 1-4, 2014.

Starting in 1995 numerical modeling of the Earth’s dynamo has ourished with remarkable success. Direct numerical simulation of convection-driven MHD- ow in a rotating spherical shell show magnetic elds that resemble the geomagnetic eld in many respects: they are dominated by the axial dipole of approximately the right strength, they show spatial power spectra similar to that of Earth, and the magnetic eld morphology and the temporal var- tion of the eld resembles that of the geomagnetic eld (Christensen and Wicht 2007). Some models show stochastic dipole reversals whose details agree with what has been inferred from paleomagnetic data (Glatzmaier and Roberts 1995; Kutzner and Christensen 2002; Wicht 2005). While these models represent direct numerical simulations of the fundamental MHD equations without parameterized induction effects, they do not match actual pla- tary conditions in a number of respects. Speci cally, they rotate too slowly, are much less turbulent, and use a viscosity and thermal diffusivity that is far too large in comparison to magnetic diffusivity. Because of these discrepancies, the success of geodynamo models may seem surprising. In order to better understand the extent to which the models are applicable to planetary dynamos, scaling laws that relate basic properties of the dynamo to the fundamental control parameters play an important role. In recent years rst attempts have been made to derive such scaling laws from a set of numerical simulations that span the accessible parameter space (Christensen and Tilgner 2004; Christensen and Aubert 2006).