Like many countries, the United Kingdom has been hit severely by the COVID-19 outbreak. A strict lockdown was essential to contain the pandemic but halted activity in many key sectors. While restrictions have eased, the country now faces a prolonged period of disruption to activity and jobs, which risks exacerbating pre-existing weak productivity growth, inequalities, child poverty and regional disparities. On-going measures to prevent a second wave of infections will need to be carefully calibrated to manage the economic impact.

Greece’s economy had been expanding by nearly 2% for over three years before the COVID-19 shock. Structural reforms, high primary budget surpluses and debt measures underpinned Greece’s recovery and rising confidence. Then the COVID-19 pandemic struck, abruptly interrupting the recovery and adding new challenges to raising inclusiveness, competitiveness and growth.

Economic activity has contracted less in Korea than in other OECD countries, thanks to the prompt and effective reaction of the authorities to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus and to the wide-ranging government support to households and businesses. Nevertheless, the pandemic generates strong headwinds.

The COVID-19 outbreak is worsening an already fragile economic outlook. Since 2013, growth has been modest and unemployment has been rising. Policy uncertainty has been the main driver of low confidence and subdued investment. Following a sharp fiscal deterioration in recent years, the crisis also heightened debt sustainability challenges.

The Israeli economy was performing well before the COVID-19 shock but the pandemic is threatening to reverse some of Israel’s recent economic achievements, raise poverty and exacerbate wide productivity disparities between its vibrant high-tech sector and lagging sheltered sectors. Lockdown measures and high uncertainty have led to a sharp contraction in output and reduced employment.

Estonia’s economy continues to perform well, and growing incomes support well-being. However, the expansion has peaked, and growth is set to soften due to weak international demand. Prudent fiscal policy has resulted in low debt, but spending pressures related to meeting infrastructure needs and ageing are mounting. Old age poverty is high and the proposal to allow early withdrawal of pension funds threatens macroeconomic stability and pension adequacy. The gender wage gap is among the highest in the OECD, and inequalities in income and health are considerable, reflecting gaps in the social safety net. The oil-shale sector is highly energy-intensive and is the main culprit behind Estonia’s high greenhouse gas emissions, but reducing dependence on the sector is challenging, as it is an important employer and meets 70% of Estonia’s energy needs.

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.