This book explores recent advances in uncertainty quantification for hyperbolic, kinetic, and related problems. The contributions address a range of different aspects, including: polynomial chaos expansions, perturbation methods, multi-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling, and moment methods. The interest in these topics is rapidly growing, as their applications have now expanded to many areas in engineering, physics, biology and the social sciences. Accordingly, the book provides the scientific community with a topical overview of the latest research efforts.

This book deals with the application of spectral methods to problems of uncertainty propagation and quanti?cation in model-based computations. It speci?cally focuses on computational and algorithmic features of these methods which are most useful in dealing with models based on partial differential equations, with special att- tion to models arising in simulations of ?uid ?ows. Implementations are illustrated through applications to elementary problems, as well as more elaborate examples selected from the authors’ interests in incompressible vortex-dominated ?ows and compressible ?ows at low Mach numbers. Spectral stochastic methods are probabilistic in nature, and are consequently rooted in the rich mathematical foundation associated with probability and measure spaces. Despite the authors’ fascination with this foundation, the discussion only - ludes to those theoretical aspects needed to set the stage for subsequent applications. The book is authored by practitioners, and is primarily intended for researchers or graduate students in computational mathematics, physics, or ?uid dynamics. The book assumes familiarity with elementary methods for the numerical solution of time-dependent, partial differential equations; prior experience with spectral me- ods is naturally helpful though not essential. Full appreciation of elaborate examples in computational ?uid dynamics (CFD) would require familiarity with key, and in some cases delicate, features of the associated numerical methods. Besides these shortcomings, our aim is to treat algorithmic and computational aspects of spectral stochastic methods with details suf?cient to address and reconstruct all but those highly elaborate examples.

The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of both properties of physical systems and the inputs to these systems that needs to be quantified for cost effective and reliable designs. The states of these systems satisfy equations with random entries, referred to as stochastic equations, so that they are random functions of time and/or space. The solution of stochastic equations poses notable technical difficulties that are frequently circumvented by heuristic assumptions at the expense of accuracy and rigor. The main objective of Stochastic Systems is to promoting the development of accurate and efficient methods for solving stochastic equations and to foster interactions between engineers, scientists, and mathematicians. To achieve these objectives Stochastic Systems presents: A clear and brief review of essential concepts on probability theory, random functions, stochastic calculus, Monte Carlo simulation, and functional analysis Probabilistic models for random variables and functions needed to formulate stochastic equations describing realistic problems in engineering and applied sciences Practical methods for quantifying the uncertain parameters in the definition of stochastic equations, solving approximately these equations, and assessing the accuracy of approximate solutions Stochastic Systems provides key information for researchers, graduate students, and engineers who are interested in the formulation and solution of stochastic problems encountered in a broad range of disciplines. Numerous examples are used to clarify and illustrate theoretical concepts and methods for solving stochastic equations. The extensive bibliography and index at the end of the book constitute an ideal resource for both theoreticians and practitioners.

This book offers a practical presentation of stochastic partial differential equations arising in physical applications and their numerical approximation.

The@ first graduate-level textbook to focus on fundamental aspects of numerical methods for stochastic computations, this book describes the class of numerical methods based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC). These fast, efficient, and accurate methods are an extension of the classical spectral methods of high-dimensional random spaces. Designed to simulate complex systems subject to random inputs, these methods are widely used in many areas of computer science and engineering. The book introduces polynomial approximation theory and probability theory; describes the basic theory of gPC methods through numerical examples and rigorous development; details the procedure for converting stochastic equations into deterministic ones; using both the Galerkin and collocation approaches; and discusses the distinct differences and challenges arising from high-dimensional problems. The last section is devoted to the application of gPC methods to critical areas such as inverse problems and data assimilation. Ideal for use by graduate students and researchers both in the classroom and for self-study, Numerical Methods for Stochastic Computations provides the required tools for in-depth research related to stochastic computations. The first graduate-level textbook to focus on the fundamentals of numerical methods for stochastic computations Ideal introduction for graduate courses or self-study Fast, efficient, and accurate numerical methods Polynomial approximation theory and probability theory included Basic gPC methods illustrated through examples

This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.