This monograph presents a time-dynamic model for multivariate claim counts in actuarial applications. Inspired by real-world claim arrivals, the model balances interesting stylized facts (such as dependence across the components, over-dispersion and the clustering of claims) with a high level of mathematical tractability (including estimation, sampling and convergence results for large portfolios) and can thus be applied in various contexts (such as risk management and pricing of (re-)insurance contracts). The authors provide a detailed analysis of the proposed probabilistic model, discussing its relation to the existing literature, its statistical properties, different estimation strategies as well as possible applications and extensions. Actuaries and researchers working in risk management and premium pricing will find this book particularly interesting. Graduate-level probability theory, stochastic analysis and statistics are required.

A modern introduction to the Poisson process, with general point processes and random measures, and applications to stochastic geometry.

To date, Mixed Poisson processes have been studied by scientists primarily interested in either insurance mathematics or point processes. Work in one area has often been carried out without knowledge of the other area. Mixed Poisson Processes is the first book to combine and concentrate on these two themes, and to distinguish between the notions of distributions and processes. The first part of the text gives special emphasis to the estimation of the underlying intensity, thinning, infinite divisibility, and reliability properties. The second part is, to a greater extent, based on Lundberg's thesis.

Beyond Multiple Linear Regression: Applied Generalized Linear Models and Multilevel Models in R is designed for undergraduate students who have successfully completed a multiple linear regression course, helping them develop an expanded modeling toolkit that includes non-normal responses and correlated structure. Even though there is no mathematical prerequisite, the authors still introduce fairly sophisticated topics such as likelihood theory, zero-inflated Poisson, and parametric bootstrapping in an intuitive and applied manner. The case studies and exercises feature real data and real research questions; thus, most of the data in the textbook comes from collaborative research conducted by the authors and their students, or from student projects. Every chapter features a variety of conceptual exercises, guided exercises, and open-ended exercises using real data. After working through this material, students will develop an expanded toolkit and a greater appreciation for the wider world of data and statistical modeling. A solutions manual for all exercises is available to qualified instructors at the book’s website at www.routledge.com, and data sets and Rmd files for all case studies and exercises are available at the authors’ GitHub repo (https://github.com/proback/BeyondMLR)

Point processes and random measures find wide applicability in telecommunications, earthquakes, image analysis, spatial point patterns, and stereology, to name but a few areas. The authors have made a major reshaping of their work in their first edition of 1988 and now present their Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes in two volumes with sub-titles Elementary Theory and Models and General Theory and Structure. Volume One contains the introductory chapters from the first edition, together with an informal treatment of some of the later material intended to make it more accessible to readers primarily interested in models and applications. The main new material in this volume relates to marked point processes and to processes evolving in time, where the conditional intensity methodology provides a basis for model building, inference, and prediction. There are abundant examples whose purpose is both didactic and to illustrate further applications of the ideas and models that are the main substance of the text.

Although standard mixed effects models are useful in a range of studies, other approaches must often be used in correlation with them when studying complex or incomplete data. Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data discusses commonly used mixed effects models and presents appropriate approaches to address dropouts, missing data, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. For each class of mixed effects model, the author reviews the corresponding class of regression model for cross-sectional data. An overview of general models and methods, along with motivating examples After presenting real data examples and outlining general approaches to the analysis of longitudinal/clustered data and incomplete data, the book introduces linear mixed effects (LME) models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) models, and semiparametric and nonparametric mixed effects models. It also includes general approaches for the analysis of complex data with missing values, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. Self-contained coverage of specific topics Subsequent chapters delve more deeply into missing data problems, covariate measurement errors, and censored responses in mixed effects models. Focusing on incomplete data, the book also covers survival and frailty models, joint models of survival and longitudinal data, robust methods for mixed effects models, marginal generalized estimating equation (GEE) models for longitudinal or clustered data, and Bayesian methods for mixed effects models. Background material In the appendix, the author provides background information, such as likelihood theory, the Gibbs sampler, rejection and importance sampling methods, numerical integration methods, optimization methods, bootstrap, and matrix algebra. Failure to properly address missing data, measurement errors, and other issues in statistical analyses can lead to severely biased or misleading results. This book explores the biases that arise when naïve methods are used and shows which approaches should be used to achieve accurate results in longitudinal data analysis.

Model a Wide Range of Count Time Series Handbook of Discrete-Valued Time Series presents state-of-the-art methods for modeling time series of counts and incorporates frequentist and Bayesian approaches for discrete-valued spatio-temporal data and multivariate data. While the book focuses on time series of counts, some of the techniques discussed ca