One year after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has exacerbated the rift between Russia and the "collective West". While Western governments have been steadfast in punishing Russia for the invasion, other countries around the world have been more ambiguous, at times even choosing to side with Moscow politically or economically. These dynamics have revived the idea of a shift towards multipolarity along an anti-Western trajectory. Are we really heading in that direction? Are we facing increasing fragmentation due to the war or a re-consolidation of longstanding alliances? What principles underlie the formation of these blocs? What are the consequences of these dynamics for global security and the global economy? This Report aims to shed light on these questions, while also outlining the war's possible future implications for the Russian Federation, the "West", and the international order.

While counterterrorism has been the primary focus of the defence and security policies of major Western countries in the last two decades, recent years have seen the re-emergence of states as the major threat. Intelligence Cooperation under Multipolarity offers a timely analysis of the challenges and opportunities for intelligence cooperation, characterized by the re-emergence of great power competition, particularly between the United States, China, and Russia. This collection explores foreign policy and national security tools and partnerships that have emerged as the United States, typically an international leader, experiences internal and external shocks that have rendered its role on the international stage more uncertain. The book focuses on non-American perspectives in order to understand how America’s allies and partners have adjusted to global power transitions. Drawing on contributions from leading intelligence and strategic studies scholars and professionals, Intelligence Cooperation under Multipolarity aims to broaden and deepen our understanding of the consequences of the power transition on national security policies.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the international system has been unipolar, centered on the United States. But the rise of China foreshadows a change in the distribution of power. Øystein Tunsjø shows that the international system is moving toward a U.S.-China standoff, bringing us back to bipolarity—a system in which no third power can challenge the top two. The Return of Bipolarity in World Politics surveys the new era of superpowers to argue that the combined effects of the narrowing power gap between China and the United States and the widening power gap between China and any third-ranking power portend a new bipolar system that will differ in crucial ways from that of the last century. Tunsjø expands Kenneth N. Waltz’s structural-realist theory to examine the new bipolarity within the context of geopolitics, which he calls “geostructural realism.” He considers how a new bipolar system will affect balancing and stability in U.S.-China relations, predicting that the new bipolarity will not be as prone to arms races as the previous era’s; that the risk of limited war between the two superpowers is likely to be higher in the coming bipolarity, especially since the two powers are primarily rivals at sea rather than on land; and that the superpowers are likely to be preoccupied with rivalry and conflict in East Asia instead of globally. Tunsjø presents a major challenge to how international relations understands superpowers in the twenty-first century.

Rekindling the Strong State in Russia and China offers a thorough analysis of the profound regeneration of the State and its intense interaction with the external projections of Russia and China. In the international political scene, leaderships are under constant negotiation. Financial crisis, social and cultural transformations, values setting and migration flows have a deep impact on global powers, leading to the appearance of new actors. At present, the assumed rise of a new axis between two emerging powers, such as Russia and China, effaces their different backgrounds, leading to misinterpretations of their positioning in the geopolitical arena. This book is an essential and multifaceted guide aimed at understanding the deep changes that affect these two countries and their global aspirations. Contributors are: Marco Puleri; Andrea Passeri; Marco Balboni; Carmelo Danisi; Mingjiang Li; Mahalakshmi Ganapathy; Rosa Mulè; Olga Dubrovina; Evgeny Mironov; Yongshun Cai; Vasil Sakaev; Eugenia Baroncelli; Sonia Lucarelli; Nicolò Fasola; Stefano Bianchini; Stanislav Tkachenko; Vitaly Kozyrev; Marco Borraccetti; Francesco Privitera; Antonio Fiori, Massimiliano Trentin; Arrigo Pallotti; Giuliana Laschi; Michael Leigh.

In his new book, Hanna Samir Kassab examines changes and trends in international politics and the competition between great powers for control of the international system. He argues that the increase in geopolitical, economic, nationalist, and resource competition between three great powers, the United States, China, and Russia, points to the changing structure of the international system. This competition is a systemic one, focusing more on the rules and norms that defined the system since the end of the Cold War. This American-led unipolar order is translating into a multipolar one. Kassab begins by tracing the decline of the United States after the Iraq War (2003) and the Great Recession (2008) as well as the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia. He describes major foreign policy changes from George H.W. Bush to Donald J. Trump and how the various administrations approached the international system. Russia and China will increase their international influence as the United States pulls back from the international system. Written using simple jargon, Globalization, Multipolarity and Great Power Competition is equally accessible to academics and casual readers and laypeople interested in international politics.

In light of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine, West-Russia relations have so dramatically deteriorated that talk of a new Cold War has become routine. NATO’s role in Europe is again in the spotlight, with experts and policymakers pondering whether the Alliance needs to go back to its historical roots and re-calibrate itself as an instrument of defence from and containment of Russia. At the same time, cooperation between Russia and the West has not collapsed altogether coordinate on issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme. Clearly, tensions over Ukraine are so strong that the risk of a breakdown in relations cannot be ruled out. The contributions to this volume, the result of an international conference jointly organized by the Istituto Affari Internazionali and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, analyze the dramatic shift in Europe’s strategic context and explore the question of whether Russia and the West can contain tensions, manage competition, and keep cooperating on issues of mutual concern.