7.2.1. Input data and model initialization -- 7.2.2. Geographic distribution of vascular plant diversity -- 7.2.3. Estimation of area potentials for agriculture and their spatial correlation to regions with high vascular plant diversity -- 7.2.4. Assessment of land-use and land-cover change impacts -- 7.2.5. Scenario drivers -- 7.3. Results -- 7.3.1. Area potentials for agricultural activities -- 7.3.2. Scenario analysis -- 7.4. Discussion -- 7.5. Conclusions -- 8. Synthesis -- 8.1. Summary of findings -- 8.1.1. Modeling the feedback between stocking density and biomass productivity -- 8.1.2. Quantifying the environmental impact of grazing in Jordan -- 8.1.3. Future land-use and land-cover change scenarios for the Jordan River region -- 8.1.4. Assessment of future conflicts between agricultural land use and biodiversity in Africa -- 8.2. Outlook on further research -- 9. Bibliography -- A. Nonlinear correlation functionsbetween stocking density andbiomass productivity -- B. Input specification -- C. Land-use and land-cover maps for the simulation experimenton future conflicts between agricultural land use and biodiversity in Africa -- Back cover

The rising global demand for metals in a context of declining ore grades is driving the opening of new mines and the expansion of existing ones, disturbing substantial land areas (especially by open pits). However, how much land is currently disturbed globally? How much land could be disturbed by metal mining in 2050? This study investigates the global area disturbed by mining of iron, bauxite, copper, gold, and silver for the first time. The first part consists of the calculation of the specific land requirements, i.e. the area newly disturbed caused by the ore extraction at the mine site. The second part addresses the global area disturbed in the year 2011 whereas the third presents scenarios of how such area might evolve until 2050. The last part addresses the current and future pressures on global biodiversity by metal mines and shows possibilities for the future opening of new mines in low biodiversity areas, alleviating pressures in high biodiversity ones. This study presents the findings of the author´s dissertation hoping they are used as a frame to develop policies and incentives to reduce the amount of area directly disturbed by mines and their pressures on biodiversity.

This book introduces a key issue in research on the climatic impact of land cover and land use changes via terrestrial biogeophysical processes. The parameterization of surface processes and a systematic approach to modeling the climatic impacts of land use change are discussed respectively, and can be used to improve parameterization schemes for climate numerical models and to provide a systematic method, thus offering more scientific and enhanced support for research on the climatic effects of land use/cover change. Further, based on predictions and scenario analyses of land use changes in typical zones, the climatic impact of various types of changes in different areas can be simulated through climatic numerical modeling, the simulation results are suitable for use in climate mitigation, land use planning, urban development planning, etc. Thus, the book is intended for researchers and professionals working in the area of meteorology systems, climatic numerical modeling, climate change, and land use/cover change, as well as decision makers in meteorology and land use planning. Professor Xiangzheng Deng is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Environmental Land Use Planning brings together leading scholars in the field of environmental problem solving to examine environmental problems and effects on land uses; analytical methods and tools in the field; and the role of governments, community grants and tradable permits in environmental planning. The chapters are based on empirical research from countries around the globe including Canada, USA, China, Nigeria, Germany, Serbia, Venezuela, and Brazil. The book discusses such issues as predicting changes in land use pattern, ecological footprint analysis, socioeconomic and behavioral modeling, and flood control approaches. It is insightful and serves as an important resource and reference material on environmental management.

Natural and human-induced changes in Earth's interior, land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans affect all aspects of life. Understanding these changes requires a range of observations acquired from land-, sea-, air-, and space-based platforms. To assist NASA, NOAA, and USGS in developing these tools, the NRC was asked to carry out a "decadal strategy" survey of Earth science and applications from space that would develop the key scientific questions on which to focus Earth and environmental observations in the period 2005-2015 and beyond, and present a prioritized list of space programs, missions, and supporting activities to address these questions. This report presents a vision for the Earth science program; an analysis of the existing Earth Observing System and recommendations to help restore its capabilities; an assessment of and recommendations for new observations and missions for the next decade; an examination of and recommendations for effective application of those observations; and an analysis of how best to sustain that observation and applications system.

People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

Maintaining flows and quality of water resources is critical to support ecosystem services and consumptive needs. Understanding impacts of changes in climate and land use on ecohydrologic processes in a watershed is vital to sustaining water resources for multiple uses. This study completes a continental and regional scale assessment using statistical and simulation modeling to investigate ecohydrologic impacts within watershed systems. Watersheds across the continental United States have diverse hydrogeomorphic characters, mean temperatures, soil moistures, precipitation and evaporation patterns that influence runoff processes. Changes in climate affect runoff by impacting available soil moisture, evaporation, precipitation and vegetative patterns. A one percent increase in annual soil moisture may cause a five percent increase in runoff in watersheds across the continent. Low soil moisture and high temperatures influence runoff patterns in specific regions. Spring runoff is increased by the influence Spring soil moisture, Winter and Spring evaporation, and Winter and Spring evaporation. Spring runoff is decreased by increases in Winter and Spring temperatures and increases in the vegetation index. Winter runoff is affected by maximum vegetative index, temperature, soil moisture, evaporation and precipitation. Contributing factors to runoff are influenced by geomorphic and seasonal variations requiring strategies that are site-specific and use system-wide information. Regional scale watershed analysis investigates the influence of landscape metrics on temporal streamflow processes in multiple gauged watersheds in Massachusetts, U.S.A. Time of concentration, recession coefficient, base flow index, and peak flow are hydrologic metrics used to relate to landscape metrics derived using FRAGSTAT software. Peak flow increases with increasing perimeter-area fractal dimensions, and Contagion index and decreases as Landscape Shape Index increases. There was an increasing trend in the fractal dimension over time indicative of more complex shape of patches in watershed. Base flow index and recession coefficient fluctuated from low to high decreasing recently. This could be indicative of open space legislation, conservation efforts and reforestation within the state in the last ten years. Coastal systems provide valuable ecosystem services and are vulnerable to impacts of changes in climate and continental land use patterns. Effects of land use and climate change on runoff, suspended sediments, total nitrogen and total phosphorus are simulated for coastal watersheds around the Boston Bay ecosystem. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, a continuous-time, semi distributed, process-based model, is used to simulate the watershed ecohydrologic process affecting coastal bodies. Urbanization in watersheds increased runoff by as much as 80% from the baseline. Land use change poses a major threat to water quality impacts affecting coastal ecosystems. Total nitrogen increased average of 53.8% with conservative changes in climate and land use. Total phosphorus increased an average of 57.3% with conservative changes in land use and climate change. Climate change alone causes up to 40% increase in runoff and when combined with a 3.25% increase in urban development runoff increased an average of 114%. Coastal ecosystems are impacted by nutrient runoff from watersheds. Continued urbanization and changes in climate will increase total nitrogen, total phosphorus and suspended sediments in coastal ecosystems. Continental scale runoff is affected by soil moisture and vegetative cover. Cover crops, low tillage farm practices and natural vegetation contribute to less runoff. Developing policies that encourage protection of soil structure could minimize runoff and aid in maintaining sustainable water resources. Best Management Practices and Low impact development at the national level with continued stormwater legislation directed towards sustainable land use policy will improve water quantity and quality. Fragmentation observed in Massachusetts increases the number of urban parcels and decreases the size of forested areas. Faster runoff patterns are observed but recent land management may be changing this runoff pattern. Municipal and state zoning ordinance to preserve open space and large forest patches will restrict urban growth to specific regions of a watershed. This could improve quantities of water available to ecosystems. Increases in total nitrogen, phosphorus and suspended sediments to coastal ecosystems can be minimized with use of riparian buffers and Best Management Practices within coastal watersheds. Urbanization and climate change threatens coastal ecosystems and national policy to preserve and restrict development of coastal areas will preserve coastal ecosystem services.