Modeling the economic effect of changes in tax policy : hearing before the Subcommittee on Oversight of the Committee on Ways and Means, House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, second session, May 7, 2002.

These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.

This book reports the authors' research on one of the most sophisticated general equilibrium models designed for tax policy analysis. Significantly disaggregated and incorporating the complete array of federal, state, and local taxes, the model represents the U.S. economy and tax system in a large computer package. The authors consider modifications of the tax system, including those being raised in current policy debates, such as consumption-based taxes and integration of the corporate and personal income tax systems. A counterfactual economy associated with each of these alternatives is generated, and the possible outcomes are compared.

The Economic Impacts of Tax—Transfer Policy: Regional and Distributional Effects deals with evaluating proposed income-transfer policies through tax modeling. The book analyzes the direct and indirect effects of two variants of a negative income tax plan. These are the standard negative income tax and the Family Assistance Plan. By studying the indirect effects of income-maintenance programs on industries, occupations, and different regions, the authors point to understanding the effectiveness of alternative income-maintenance programs. Proposed changes in national taxes and transfer policies aim to achieve income redistribution. In their studies and models, the authors noted that the full impact of these tax policies throughout the income spectra covering different income classes, industries, occupations, and regions is different from that gathered from observations involving the direct effects of these schemes. The authors cite some policy implications resulting from their study, such as the redistributional impacts of direct tax-transfer scheme are not as efficient as expected and that increasing the demand for low-skilled workers and improving their job qualities is one way of improving income distribution. The text is valuable for economists and government policymakers in the finance and labor sectors, as well as for sociologists and political economists.