This book provides a framework for analyzing and forecasting a variety of mineral and energy markets and related industries. Such modeling activity has been at the forefront of the economic and engineering professions for some time, having received a major stimulus fC?llowing the first oil price shock in 1973. Since that time, other shocks have affected these markets and industries, causing disequilibrium economic adjustments which are difficult to analyze and to predict. Moreover, geopolitics remains an important factor which can destabilize crude oil markets and associated refining industries. Mineral and energy modeling, consequently, has become a major interest of energy-related corporations, mining and drilling companies, metal manufacturers, public utilities, investment banks,. national government agencies and international organizations. This book hopes to advance mineral and energy modeling as follows: (1) The modeling process is presented sequentially by leading the model builder from model specification, estimation, simulation, and validation to practical model applications, including explaining history, analyzing policy, and market and price forecasting; (2) New developments in modeling approaches are presented which encompass econometric market and industry models, spatial equilibrium and programming models, optimal resource depletion models, input-output models, economic sector models, and macro oriented energy interaction models (including computable general equilibrium); (3) The verification and application of the models is considered not only individually but also in relation to the performance of alternative modeling approaches; and (4) The modeling framework includes a perspective on new directions, so that the present model building advice will extend into the future.

Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.

This book is designed to provide the economic skills to make better management or policy decisions relating to energy. It requires a knowledge of calculus and contains a toolbox of models along with institutional, technological and historical information for oil, coal, electricity, and renewable energy resources.

Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

This addition to the ISOR series introduces complementarity models in a straightforward and approachable manner and uses them to carry out an in-depth analysis of energy markets, including formulation issues and solution techniques. In a nutshell, complementarity models generalize: a. optimization problems via their Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions b. on-cooperative games in which each player may be solving a separate but related optimization problem with potentially overall system constraints (e.g., market-clearing conditions) c. conomic and engineering problems that aren’t specifically derived from optimization problems (e.g., spatial price equilibria) d. roblems in which both primal and dual variables (prices) appear in the original formulation (e.g., The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) or its precursor, PIES). As such, complementarity models are a very general and flexible modeling format. A natural question is why concentrate on energy markets for this complementarity approach? s it turns out, energy or other markets that have game theoretic aspects are best modeled by complementarity problems. The reason is that the traditional perfect competition approach no longer applies due to deregulation and restructuring of these markets and thus the corresponding optimization problems may no longer hold. Also, in some instances it is important in the original model formulation to involve both primal variables (e.g., production) as well as dual variables (e.g., market prices) for public and private sector energy planning. Traditional optimization problems can not directly handle this mixing of primal and dual variables but complementarity models can and this makes them all that more effective for decision-makers.

This book lays the foundations for quality modeling and analysis in the context of supply chains through a synthesis of the economics, operations management, as well as operations research/management science literature on quality. The reality of today's supply chain networks, given their global reach from sourcing locations to points of demand, is further challenged by such issues as the growth in outsourcing as well as the information asymmetry associated with what producers know about the quality of their products and what consumers know. Although much of the related literature has focused on the micro aspects of supply chain networks, considering two or three decision-makers, it is essential to capture the scale of supply chain networks in a holistic manner that occurs in practice in order to be able to evaluate and analyze the competition and the impacts on supply chain quality in a quantifiable manner. This volume provides an overview of the fundamental methodologies utilized in this book, including optimization theory, game theory, variational inequality theory, and projected dynamical systems theory. It then focuses on major issues in today's supply chains with respect to quality, beginning with information asymmetry, followed by product differentiation and branding, the outsourcing of production, from components to final products, to quality in freight service provision. The book is filled with numerous real-life examples in order to emphasize the generality and pragmatism of the models and tools. The novelty of the framework lies in a network economics perspective through which the authors identify the underlying network structure of the various supply chains, coupled with the behavior of the decision-makers, ranging from suppliers and manufacturers to freight service providers. What is meant by quality is rigorously defined and quantified. The authors explore the underlying dynamics associated with the competitive processes along with the equilibrium solutions. As appropriate, the supply chain decision-makers compete in terms of quantity and quality, or in price and quality. The relevance of the various models that are developed to specific industrial sectors, including pharmaceuticals and high technology products, is clearly made. Qualitative analyses are provided, along with effective, and, easy to implement, computational procedures. Finally, the impacts of policy interventions, in the form of minimum quality standards, and their ramifications, in terms of product prices, quality levels, as well as profits are explored. The book is filled with many network figures, graphs, and tables with data.

Prices and quantities of both stock and flow variables in an economic system are decisively influenced by their spatial coordinates. Any equilibrium state also mirrors the underlying spatial structure and a tatonnement process also incorporates the spatial ramifications of consumer and producer behaviour. The recognition ofthe spatial element in the formation of a general equilibrium in a complex space-economy already dates back to early work of LOsch, Isard and Samuelson, but it reached a stage of maturity thanks to the new inroads made by T. Takayama. This book is devoted to spatial economic equilibrium (SPE) analysis and is meant to pay homage to the founding father of modern spatial economic thinking, Professor Takayama. This book witnesses his great talents in clear and rigorous economic thinking regarding an area where for decades many economists have been groping in the dark. Everybody who wants to study the phenomenon of spatial economic equilibrium will necessarily come across Takayama's work, but this necessity is at the same time a great pleasure. Studying his work means a personal scientific enrichment in a field which is still not completely explored. The present volume brings together recent contributions to spatial equilibrium analysis, written by friends and colleagues of Takayama. The structure of the book is based on four main uses of spatial equilibrium models: (i) the imbedding of spatial flows in the economic environment, related to e.g.