Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-switching Models

Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-switching Models
Title Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-switching Models PDF eBook
Author Cem Cakmakli
Publisher
Pages 40
Release 2011
Genre
ISBN

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Modeling and Estimation of Synchronisation in Multistate Markov-switching Models

Modeling and Estimation of Synchronisation in Multistate Markov-switching Models
Title Modeling and Estimation of Synchronisation in Multistate Markov-switching Models PDF eBook
Author Çem Cakmakli
Publisher
Pages 40
Release 2011
Genre
ISBN

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Synchronization of Markov Chains in Multivariate Regime-Switching Models

Synchronization of Markov Chains in Multivariate Regime-Switching Models
Title Synchronization of Markov Chains in Multivariate Regime-Switching Models PDF eBook
Author Raphael Vial
Publisher
Pages 0
Release 2015
Genre
ISBN

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Multivariate regime-switching presents an efficient way of jointly modeling the cyclical behavior of financial time series. Standard regime-switching models thereby a priori determine the relationship between the regime-switches of individual assets. These switches are usually assumed to be either perfectly synchronized or fully independent. However, neither assumption seems realistic in practice. This thesis develops a multivariate Markov regime-switching model to infer the actual degree of synchronization from the underlying data. This flexible model allows subgroups of assets to be driven by individual Markov chains. At the same time, these Markov chains underlie a dynamically changing degree of synchronization. In comparison to most existing solutions, this model is not restricted to bivariate analysis. To keep the model traceable, a novel factorization algorithm for the regime-dependent correlation matrix is formulated. This algorithm scales down the increase in parameters and presents an efficient way of ensuring positive semi-definite correlation matrices. The structure of the flexible regime-switching model is motivated by the initial synchronization analysis conducted in this thesis. The analysis of univariate regime-switching results shows that neither perfectly synchronized nor fully independent regime cycles are empirically observable. The synchronization of regime cycles tends to dynamically change over time. Some assets, however, might show more contemporaneous switching dynamics and can therefore be governed by a joint regime process. The empirical results for a sample of six international equity markets confirm the assumptions underlying this thesis. The flexible model reveals a stable synchronization factor, marked by one particular change in synchronization. The estimated parameters of this model closely cover the individual dynamics of their underlying assets and confirm the model's validity. Moreover, in some.

How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles?

How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles?
Title How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? PDF eBook
Author Penelope A. Smith
Publisher
Pages 40
Release 2004
Genre Business forecasting
ISBN 9780734031518

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The Markov Switching Multi-fractal Model of Asset Returns

The Markov Switching Multi-fractal Model of Asset Returns
Title The Markov Switching Multi-fractal Model of Asset Returns PDF eBook
Author Hwa Taek Lee
Publisher
Pages 175
Release 2007
Genre
ISBN

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A Basic Recursion for Markov Switching Models

A Basic Recursion for Markov Switching Models
Title A Basic Recursion for Markov Switching Models PDF eBook
Author Lung-Fei Lee
Publisher
Pages 14
Release 1995
Genre
ISBN

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Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis

Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis
Title Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis PDF eBook
Author Steven Durlauf
Publisher Springer
Pages 417
Release 2016-04-30
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 0230280838

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Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.