In its thousands of years of history, mathematics has made an extraordinary ca reer. It started from rules for bookkeeping and computation of areas to become the language of science. Its potential for decision support was fully recognized in the twentieth century only, vitally aided by the evolution of computing and communi cation technology. Mathematical optimization, in particular, has developed into a powerful machinery to help planners. Whether costs are to be reduced, profits to be maximized, or scarce resources to be used wisely, optimization methods are available to guide decision making. Opti mization is particularly strong if precise models of real phenomena and data of high quality are at hand - often yielding reliable automated control and decision proce dures. But what, if the models are soft and not all data are around? Can mathematics help as well? This book addresses such issues, e. g. , problems of the following type: - An elevator cannot know all transportation requests in advance. In which order should it serve the passengers? - Wing profiles of aircrafts influence the fuel consumption. Is it possible to con tinuously adapt the shape of a wing during the flight under rapidly changing conditions? - Robots are designed to accomplish specific tasks as efficiently as possible. But what if a robot navigates in an unknown environment? - Energy demand changes quickly and is not easily predictable over time. Some types of power plants can only react slowly.

Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.

Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.

Learn to apply modeling and parameter estimation tools and strategies to chemicalprocesses using your personal computer This book introduces readers to powerful parameter estimation and computational methods for modeling complex chemical reactions and reaction processes. It presents useful mathematical models, numerical methods for solving them, and statistical methods for testing and discriminating candidate models with experimental data. Topics covered include: Chemical reaction models Chemical reactor models Probability and statistics Bayesian estimation Process modeling with single-response data Process modeling with multi-response data Computer software (Athena Visual Studio) is available via a related Web site http://www.athenavisual.com enabling readers to carry out parameter estimation based on their data and to carry out process modeling using these parameters. As an aid to the reader, an appendix of example problems and solutions is provided. Computer-Aided Modeling of Reactive Systems is an ideal supplemental text for advanced undergraduates and graduate students in chemical engineering courses, while it also serves as a valuable resource for practitioners in industry who want to keep up to date on the most current tools and strategies available.

This book contains the written versions of main lectures presented at the Advanced Study Institute (ASI) on Computational Mathematical Programming, which was held in Bad Windsheim, Germany F. R., from July 23 to August 2, 1984, under the sponsorship of NATO. The ASI was organized by the Committee on Algorithms (COAL) of the Mathematical Programming Society. Co-directors were Karla Hoffmann (National Bureau of Standards, Washington, U.S.A.) and Jan Teigen (Rabobank Nederland, Zeist, The Netherlands). Ninety participants coming from about 20 different countries attended the ASI and contributed their efforts to achieve a highly interesting and stimulating meeting. Since 1947 when the first linear programming technique was developed, the importance of optimization models and their mathematical solution methods has steadily increased, and now plays a leading role in applied research areas. The basic idea of optimization theory is to minimize (or maximize) a function of several variables subject to certain restrictions. This general mathematical concept covers a broad class of possible practical applications arising in mechanical, electrical, or chemical engineering, physics, economics, medicine, biology, etc. There are both industrial applications (e.g. design of mechanical structures, production plans) and applications in the natural, engineering, and social sciences (e.g. chemical equilibrium problems, christollography problems).

Randomized clinical trials are the primary tool for evaluating new medical interventions. Randomization provides for a fair comparison between treatment and control groups, balancing out, on average, distributions of known and unknown factors among the participants. Unfortunately, these studies often lack a substantial percentage of data. This missing data reduces the benefit provided by the randomization and introduces potential biases in the comparison of the treatment groups. Missing data can arise for a variety of reasons, including the inability or unwillingness of participants to meet appointments for evaluation. And in some studies, some or all of data collection ceases when participants discontinue study treatment. Existing guidelines for the design and conduct of clinical trials, and the analysis of the resulting data, provide only limited advice on how to handle missing data. Thus, approaches to the analysis of data with an appreciable amount of missing values tend to be ad hoc and variable. The Prevention and Treatment of Missing Data in Clinical Trials concludes that a more principled approach to design and analysis in the presence of missing data is both needed and possible. Such an approach needs to focus on two critical elements: (1) careful design and conduct to limit the amount and impact of missing data and (2) analysis that makes full use of information on all randomized participants and is based on careful attention to the assumptions about the nature of the missing data underlying estimates of treatment effects. In addition to the highest priority recommendations, the book offers more detailed recommendations on the conduct of clinical trials and techniques for analysis of trial data.