Managing the Unknown offers a new way of looking at the problem of managing projects in novel and unknown environments. From Europe's leading business school, this book shows how to manage two fundamental approaches that, in combination, offer the possibility of coping with unforeseen influences that inevitably arise in novel projects: * Trial-and-Error Learning allows for redefining the plan and the project as the project unfolds * Selectionism pursues multiple, independent trials in order to pick the best one at the end Managing the Unknown offers expert guidelines to the specific project mindsets, infrastructures, and management methods required to use these project management approaches and achieve success in spite of unforeseen obstacles. This book equips readers with: * Causal explanations of why unforeseeable factors in novel projects make traditional project planning and project risk management insufficient * Directly applicable management tools that help managers to guide novel and high-uncertainty projects * Real-world case studies of both successful and unsuccessful approaches to managing high uncertainty in novel projects

Information is crucial when it comes to the management of resources. But what if knowledge is incomplete, or biased, or otherwise deficient? How did people define patterns of proper use in the absence of cognitive certainty? Discussing this challenge for a diverse set of resources from fish to rubber, these essays show that deficient knowledge is a far more pervasive challenge in resource history than conventional readings suggest. Furthermore, environmental ignorance does not inevitably shrink with the march of scientific progress: these essays suggest more of a dialectical relationship between knowledge and ignorance that has different shapes and trajectories. With its combination of empirical case studies and theoretical reflection, the essays make a significant contribution to the interdisciplinary debate on the production and resilience of ignorance. At the same time, this volume combines insights from different continents as well as the seas in between and thus sketches outlines of an emerging global resource history.

Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.

Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk proposes that financial risk management broaden its approach, maintaining quantification where possible, but incorporating uncertainty. The author shows that by using broad quantification techniques, and using reason as the guiding principle, practitioners can see a more holistic and complete picture.

A clear understanding of what we know, don't know, and can't know should guide any reasonable approach to managing financial risk, yet the most widely used measure in finance today--Value at Risk, or VaR--reduces these risks to a single number, creating a false sense of security among risk managers, executives, and regulators. This book introduces a more realistic and holistic framework called KuU --the K nown, the u nknown, and the U nknowable--that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them. Bringing together contributions by leaders in finance and economics, this book pushes toward robustifying policies, portfolios, contracts, and organizations to a wide variety of KuU risks. Along the way, the strengths and limitations of "quantitative" risk management are revealed. In addition to the editors, the contributors are Ashok Bardhan, Dan Borge, Charles N. Bralver, Riccardo Colacito, Robert H. Edelstein, Robert F. Engle, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Clive W. J. Granger, Paul R. Kleindorfer, Donald L. Kohn, Howard Kunreuther, Andrew Kuritzkes, Robert H. Litzenberger, Benoit B. Mandelbrot, David M. Modest, Alex Muermann, Mark V. Pauly, Til Schuermann, Kenneth E. Scott, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Richard J. Zeckhauser. Introduces a new risk-management paradigm Features contributions by leaders in finance and economics Demonstrates how "killer risks" are often more economic than statistical, and crucially linked to incentives Shows how to invest and design policies amid financial uncertainty

Emphasising that firms face uncertainties and unknowns, this book argues that the core of strategic thinking and processes rests on the organization and its leaders developing newly imagined solutions to the opportunities that these uncertainties open up. It presents new approaches for managers, consultants, strategy teachers and students.

Chapter 5: Customers, Products, Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Close Customer Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Customer Requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Dependence on the Customer and Risk Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Achieving Closeness to Customer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Product and Service Spectrum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Chapter 6: Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 What Does Innovation Mean?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 High Level of Innovativeness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Driving Forces of Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 The Origin of Innovations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Leadership and Organizational Aspects of Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 Chapter 7: Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Competitive Structure and Conduct . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 The Hidden Champions in the Light of Porter’s “Five Forces” . . . . . 195 Competitive Advantages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Sustainability of Competitive Advantages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 Demonstration of Competitive Superiority . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Competitive Edge and Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 Sparring Partners for Competitive Fitness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 Excessive Competitive Orientation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 Chapter 8: Financing, Organization, and Business Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 Contents ix Organization of the Value Chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 Business Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 Entrepreneurial Clusters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 Chapter 9: Employees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Job Creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Corporate Culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 Quali?cations and Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 Creativity of Employees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 Recruiting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 Chapter 10: The Leaders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285 Structures of Ownership and Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 How Crucial Is Leadership? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 Leadership Continuity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 Young to the Top . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 Powerful Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 Internationalization of Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 Personalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 Leadership Styles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 Management Succession . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 Chapter 11: Hidden Champions: Audit and Strategy Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 What Is Strategy? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316 Hidden Champion Strategy: For Whom? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316 Hidden Champions – Audits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317 Strategy Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 Strategies for Value Propositions and Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 Organization and Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .