This paper investigates the macroeconomic cycles China has experienced since the onset of reform in the late 1970s. It finds that the recurrent inflationary episodes that characterize the cycles are associated primarily with surges in the main components of aggregate demand. The most recent cycle stands out in achieving for the first time a reduction in inflation without a major slowdown in growth. The soft landing was facilitated by a number of factors, including increases in capacity as a result of the surge in investment spending early on in the cycle.

This paper investigates the macroeconomic cycles China has experienced since the onset of reform in the late 1970s. It finds that the recurrent inflationary episodes that characterize the cycles are associated primarily with surges in the main components of aggregate demand. The most recent cycle stands out in achieving for the first time a reduction in inflation without a major slowdown in growth. The soft landing was facilitated by a number of factors, including increases in capacity as a result of the surge in investment spending early on in the cycle.

This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

The nature of the economic cycle has been a long-standing problem for economists. Key questions include: What are the causes of the economic cycle? Are the causes endogenous or exogenous? and Why is the economic cycle irregular? This book explores the theory of the economic cycle in relation to economic growth in China. The book concludes that the cause of the economic cycle is endogenous, that the periodic fluctuation of economic growth and its dynamic equilibrium are natural aspects of the growth of the economy, and it puts forward a new model of the economic cycle which confidently predicts the future trajectory of China’s economic growth.

The most comprehensive English-language overview of the modern Chinese economy, covering China's economic development since 1949 and post-1978 reforms--from industrial change and agricultural organization to science and technology.

Since the economic reform of the 1980s, Chinese economy has boomed and has now become the second largest in the world. Based on the constant and systematic researches of economic periodicity, this book studies Chinese economic growth and fluctuations. As a famous Chinese economist, the author is the first one who demonstrated the investment periodicity in China. His groundbreaking studies on Chinese economic periodic fluctuation have significant impact at home and abroad. The first six papers collected in this book mainly examine issues on Chinese periodic fluctuation and macroeconomic regulation, including the periodic fluctuations from 1953 to 1994, and a comparative analysis of five macroeconomic regulations since the reform and open up in the late 1980s. The last seven papers appear in the author's collected works for the first time. They are focused on the new characteristics of Chinese macroeconomic operation and regulation after the financial crisis of 2007-2008. In addition, this book reviews on China's economic growth from 1949 to 2009 and provides some valuable suggestions on how to maintain the rising trend of the new economic cycle.

This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing the “Granger causality” test. It is concluded that the cycles did not originate with the reforms; rather their characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.