Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.

Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events

Interdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific affects global hydroclimate and ecosystem and is suggested to modulate global mean temperature in the past century. It has been long acknowledged that Pacific decadal variability can be generated in the extratropics through integration of stochastic atmospheric forcing by the ocean mixed layer. However, it remains unclear how the extratropical signal propagates into the tropical Pacific and forms a basin-wide anomaly pattern and how the resultant tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) interacts with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual climate variability. To answer this question, a suite of climate model experiments is conducted with small time-invariant surface heat flux anomalies associated with the leading atmospheric modes in the extratropical South and North Pacific. The results show that subtropical ocean-atmosphere anomalies driven by the surface heat flux forcing propagate into the tropical Pacific mainly through thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere interactions, with ocean dynamics playing an important role in modifying the equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) response. The associated changes in the tropical Pacific mean state not only extend climate anomalies into the other hemisphere through atmospheric teleconnections, but also significantly affect the properties of ENSO. In particular, the ENSO-like TPDV affects the relative frequency of El Niño and La Niña. To investigate the causality and mechanism of this linkage, a separate set of climate model experiments is conducted by imposing surface heat flux anomalies associated with the ENSO-like TPDV in the tropical Pacific. The forced mean state change affects the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events by modulating the SST contrast between the tropical Pacific and the Indian/Atlantic Oceans and associated zonal wind anomalies in the western Pacific. This study presents in detail the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms by which extratropical atmospheric forcing induces basin-wide coherent patterns of TPDV that can further affect ENSO characteristics, which has not been systematically studied in fully coupled climate models. The results also show that the tropical Pacific is more strongly influenced by the South Pacific through both thermodynamic processes and ocean dynamics. The strong oceanic linkage to the South Pacific allows delayed negative oceanic feedback to effectively affect the equatorial Pacific SST, which may be important for setting up the time scales of TPDV

This book documents and examines the state of health of coral reefs in the eastern tropical Pacific region. It touches on the occurrence of coral reefs in the waters of surrounding countries, and it explores their biogeography, biodiversity and condition relative to the El Niño southern oscillation and human impacts. Additionally contained within is a field that presents information on many of the species presented in the preceding chapters.

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Many climatic extremes around the globe, such as severe droughts and floods, can be attributed to the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific sea surface, termed the El Niño or Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Advances in our understanding of ENSO, in which Edward S. Sarachik and Mark A. Cane have been key participants, have led to marked improvements in our ability to predict its development months or seasons, allowing adaptation to global impacts. This book introduces basic concepts and builds to more detailed theoretical treatments. Chapters on the structure and dynamics of the tropical ocean and atmosphere place ENSO in a broader observational and theoretical context. Chapters on ENSO prediction, past and future, and impacts, introduce broader implications of the phenomenon. This book provides an introduction to all aspects of this most important mode of global climate variability, for research workers and students of all levels in climate science, oceanography and related fields.