The expanding global commercial space industry offers new opportunities--such as technological advances in small satellites, lower launch costs, and innovative satellite applications--that could help the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) meet its mission requirements more efficiently and give it access to a broader innovation pool. The Department of the Air Force (DAF), particularly the U.S. Space Force (USSF), is increasing its partnership activities with the commercial space industry to take advantage of these opportunities. As the DAF makes investment decisions to leverage commercial space capabilities, it needs a better understanding of opportunities, risks, and challenges it might encounter. To help the DAF evaluate these potential benefits and risks, RAND researchers examined two space-related markets that together represent the widest variation in market and firm maturity: the commercial space-based positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) market (an emerging market) and the commercial satellite communications (SATCOM) market (an established market). This variation between the two markets is useful for identifying distinct and cross-cutting themes that could be generalized to other commercial space markets not analyzed in this research. In this report, the researchers describe their analysis and provide findings and recommendations for the DAF.

The commercial Space industry is expanding at a rapid rate. Spending in the commercial Space industry between 1995 and 2010 will top $100 billion. This large commercial push for placing satellites in Space combined with the limited Department of Defense (DoD) Space budget makes it difficult for the military to keep pace with the latest and most advanced commercial capabilities. Rather than trying to go toe-to-toe and match commercial spending in Space, an alternative for the U.S. military is to leverage this incredible commercial investment. For example, DoD and the intelligence community increasingly rely on satellites for reconnaissance, surveillance, early warning of missile launches, weather forecasts, navigation, and communications. The increase in commercial Space capabilities is allowing DoD to carefully weigh which multibillion-dollar Space systems are affordable. Dedicated military Space systems are not likely to be procured when suitable commercial systems are available. Commercial placement of satellites in Space focus in four major areas: communications, remote sensing, imagery, and navigation. Each of these focus areas provides the military with a significant opportunity to leverage the commercial investment in Space.

The U.S. Space Force (USSF) and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) are examining and pursuing various ways to leverage commercial space capabilities as part of their policy goal to promote the U.S. space industry and their strategy for improving the national security space architecture. As the commercial space industry continues to grow in capability, capacity, and diversity, opportunities for the USSF and DoD to leverage commercial capabilities are expanding. Specifically, the USSF is considering the role of the commercial space industry in its future space architecture and the innovation ecosystem. It is faced with many choices, such as which commercial capability option to leverage or for which military application it should use commercial instead of organic space capabilities. In this report, the authors conduct a broad review of seven commercial space sectors-satellite communications, space launch, remote sensing, environmental monitoring, space domain awareness, data transmit/receive networks, and space logistics-and characterize the capabilities and trends in each of them. The information gathered and included in this report is current as of June 15, 2020, and because of rapid changes in the commercial space industry, the authors also recommend sector-specific indicators to track future market developments.

Since the advent of the space age, a primary constraint on military, commercial, and civil space missions has been the cost of launch. Launching objects into space requires substantial investments in launch systems and infrastructure, which has restricted the market to only a handful of national governments and several large private companies. This study explores the possibility of a space industry significantly less constrained by the cost of access to space.

Young addresses the impressive expansion across existing and developing commercial space business markets, with multiple private companies competing in the payload launch services sector. The author pinpoints the new markets, technologies, and players in the industry, as well as highlighting the overall reasons why it is important for us to develop space. NASA now relies on commercial partners to supply cargo and crew spacecraft and services to and from the International Space Station. The sizes of satellites are diminishing and their capabilities expanding, while costs to orbit are decreasing. Suborbital space tourism holds the potential of new industries and jobs. Commercial space exploration of the Moon and the planets also holds promise. All this activity is a catalyst for anyone interested in joining the developing space industry, from students and researchers to engineers and entrepreneurs. As more and more satellites and rockets are launched and the business of space is expanding at a significant pace, it is increasingly important for scientists and engineers of many disciplines to understand how the business evolved and where it is continuing to develop. The growing field is fully explored in this concise overview to the players in this changing landscape.