Identifying Effective Geometric and Traffic Factors to Predict Crashes at Horizontal Curve Sections

Identifying Effective Geometric and Traffic Factors to Predict Crashes at Horizontal Curve Sections
Title Identifying Effective Geometric and Traffic Factors to Predict Crashes at Horizontal Curve Sections PDF eBook
Author Hojr Momeni
Publisher
Pages
Release 2016
Genre
ISBN

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Driver workload increases on horizontal curves due to more complicated navigation compared to navigation on straight roadway sections. Although only a small portion of roadways are horizontal curve sections, approximately 25% of all fatal highway crashes occur at horizontal curve sections. According to the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database, fatalities associated with horizontal curves were more than 25% during last years from 2008 to 2014, reinforcing that investigation of horizontal curve crashes and corresponding safety improvements are crucial study topics within the field of transportation safety. Improved safety of horizontal curve sections of rural transportation networks can contribute to reduced crash severities and frequencies. Statistical methods can be utilized to develop crash prediction models in order to estimate crashes at horizontal curves and identify contributing factors to crash occurrences, thereby correlating to the primary objectives of this research project. Primary data analysis for 221 randomly selected horizontal curves on undivided two-lane two-way highways with Poisson regression method revealed that annual average daily traffic (AADT), heavy vehicle percentage, degree of curvature, and difference between posted and advisory speeds affect crash occurrence at horizontal curves. The data, however, were relatively overdispersed, so the negative binomial (NB) regression method was utilized. Results indicated that AADT, heavy vehicle percentage, degree of curvature, and long tangent length significantly affect crash occurrence at horizontal curve sections. A new dataset consisted of geometric and traffic data of 5,334 horizontal curves on the entire state transportation network including undivided and divided highways provided by Kansas Department of Transportation (KDOT) Traffic Safety Section as well as crash data from the Kansas Crash and Analysis Reporting System (KCARS) database were used to analyze the single vehicle (SV) crashes. An R software package was used to write a code and combine required information from aforementioned databases and create the dataset for 5,334 horizontal curves on the entire state transportation network. Eighty percent of crashes including 4,267 horizontal curves were randomly selected for data analysis and remaining 20% horizontal curves (1,067 curves) were used for data validation. Since the results of the Poisson regression model showed overdispersion of crash data and many horizontal curves had zero crashes during the study period from 2010 to 2014, NB, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) methods were used for data analysis. Total number of crashes and severe crashes were analyzed with the selected methods. Results of data analysis revealed that AADT, heavy vehicle percentage, curve length, degree of curvature, posted speed, difference between posted and advisory speed, and international roughness index influenced single vehicle crashes at 4,267 randomly selected horizontal curves for data analysis. Also, AADT, degree of curvature, heavy vehicle percentage, posted speed, being a divided roadway, difference between posted and advisory speeds, and shoulder width significantly influenced severe crash occurrence at selected horizontal curves. The goodness-of-fit criteria showed that the ZINB model more accurately predicted crash numbers for all crash groups at the selected horizontal curve sections. A total of 1,067 horizontal curves were used for data validation, and the observed and predicted crashes were compared for all crash groups and data analysis methods. Results of data validation showed that ZINB models for total crashes and severe crashes more accurately predicted crashes at horizontal curves. This study also investigated the effect of speed limit change on horizontal curve crashes on K-5 highway in Leavenworth County, Kansas. A statistical t-test proved that crash data from years 2006 to 2012 showed only significant reduction in equivalent property damage only (EPDO) crash rate for adverse weather condition at 5% significance level due to speed limit reduction in June 2009. However, the changes in vehicles speeds after speed limit change and other information such as changes in surface pavement condition were not available. According to the results of data analysis for 221 selected horizontal curves on undivided two-lane highways, tangent section length significantly influenced total number of crashes. Therefore, providing more information about upcoming changes in horizontal alignment of the roadway via doubling up warning sings, using bigger sings, using materials with higher retroreflectivity, or flashing beacons were recommended for horizontal curves with long tangent section lengths and high number of crashes. Also, presence of rumble strips and wider shoulders significantly and negatively influenced severe SV crashes at horizontal curve sections; therefore, implementing rumble strips and widening shoulders for horizontal curves with high number of severe SV crashes were recommended.

Cost-effective Geometric Improvements for Safety Upgrading of Horizontal Curves

Cost-effective Geometric Improvements for Safety Upgrading of Horizontal Curves
Title Cost-effective Geometric Improvements for Safety Upgrading of Horizontal Curves PDF eBook
Author Charles V. Zegeer
Publisher
Pages 242
Release 1990
Genre Curves in engineering
ISBN

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An Overview of Different Factors in Crashes Prediction Model

An Overview of Different Factors in Crashes Prediction Model
Title An Overview of Different Factors in Crashes Prediction Model PDF eBook
Author Amiruddin Ismail
Publisher LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Pages 64
Release 2013
Genre
ISBN 9783659499456

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The crash parameters of horizontal curves and geometric design roads, effective in the crash and as dependent variables have been described here for some countries in the world. The major issues pertaining to transportation safety and factors that affect crashes with emphasis on horizontal curves in two lane rural roads are also explained. The reviews on the crashes on two lane rural roads indicated that horizontal curves and geometric design variables such as: radius curve, degree curve, deflection angle super-elevation in curve, width in curve, width shoulder, speed, length curve, grade of vertical curve, spiral or transit curve and average daily traffic (ADT), are important factors in the occurrence of traffic crashes on the two lane rural roads and highways with curves.

Roadside Design Guide

Roadside Design Guide
Title Roadside Design Guide PDF eBook
Author American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Task Force for Roadside Safety
Publisher
Pages 560
Release 1989
Genre Roads
ISBN

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Highway and Traffic Safety

Highway and Traffic Safety
Title Highway and Traffic Safety PDF eBook
Author National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board
Publisher
Pages 148
Release 2000
Genre Traffic accidents
ISBN

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Transportation Research Record contains the following papers: Method for identifying factors contributing to driver-injury severity in traffic crashes (Chen, WH and Jovanis, PP); Crash- and injury-outcome multipliers (Kim, K); Guidelines for identification of hazardous highway curves (Persaud, B, Retting, RA and Lyon, C); Tools to identify safety issues for a corridor safety-improvement program (Breyer, JP); Prediction of risk of wet-pavement accidents : fuzzy logic model (Xiao, J, Kulakowski, BT and El-Gindy, M); Analysis of accident-reduction factors on California state highways (Hanley, KE, Gibby, AR and Ferrara, T); Injury effects of rollovers and events sequence in single-vehicle crashes (Krull, KA, Khattack, AJ and Council, FM); Analytical modeling of driver-guidance schemes with flow variability considerations (Kaysi, I and Ail, NH); Evaluating the effectiveness of Norway's speak out! road safety campaign : The logic of causal inference in road safety evaluation studies (Elvik, R); Effect of speed, flow, and geometric characteristics on crash frequency for two-lane highways (Garber, NJ and Ehrhart, AA); Development of a relational accident database management system for Mexican federal roads (Mendoza, A, Uribe, A, Gil, GZ and Mayoral, E); Estimating traffic accident rates while accounting for traffic-volume estimation error : a Gibbs sampling approach (Davis, GA); Accident prediction models with and without trend : application of the generalized estimating equations procedure (Lord, D and Persaud, BN); Examination of methods that adjust observed traffic volumes on a network (Kikuchi, S, Miljkovic, D and van Zuylen, HJ); Day-to-day travel-time trends and travel-time prediction form loop-detector data (Kwon, JK, Coifman, B and Bickel, P); Heuristic vehicle classification using inductive signatures on freeways (Sun, C and Ritchie, SG).

Safety Effects of Geometric Improvements on Horizontal Curves

Safety Effects of Geometric Improvements on Horizontal Curves
Title Safety Effects of Geometric Improvements on Horizontal Curves PDF eBook
Author Charles V. Zegeer
Publisher
Pages 50
Release 1991
Genre Highway engineering
ISBN

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Horizontal curves represent a considerable safety problem on rural two-lane highways. Curves experience a higher accident rate than tangents. Current road improvements highlight the issue of what else should be done at horizontal curves to enhance (or at least hold constant) the level of safety at these sites. There has been a need to better quantify accident effects of curve features and to quantify the effects on accidents of curve flattening, curve widening, addition of spiral transitions, improvement to deficient superelevation, and improvements to the roadside. The purpose of this research was to determine the horizontal curve features which affect accident experience on two lane rural roads and, also, to determine which types of geometric improvements on curves will affect accident experience and to what extent.

Recent Geometric Design Research for Improved Safety and Operations

Recent Geometric Design Research for Improved Safety and Operations
Title Recent Geometric Design Research for Improved Safety and Operations PDF eBook
Author Kay Fitzpatrick
Publisher
Pages 144
Release 2001
Genre Technology & Engineering
ISBN

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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 299: Recent Geometric Design Research for Improved Safety and Operations reviews and summarizes selected geometric design research published during the 1990s, particularly research with improved safety and operations implication.