This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.

What factors affect the ways individuals participate in labor markets?New Developments and Research on Labor Markets (volume 4B) proposes answers to this and other questions on important topics of public policy. Leading labor economists demonstrate how better data and advanced experiments help them apply economic theory, yielding sharper analyses and conclusions. The combinations of these improved empirical findings with new models enable the authors of these chapters to reveal how labor economists are developing new and innovative ways to measure key parameters and test important hypotheses. - Concentrates on empirical research in specific labor markets, including those defined by age, gender, and race - Reveals how questions and answers about these markets have changed and how models measure them - Documents how conceptual models and empirical work explain important practical issues

A compendium of studies drawn from an international conference, this volume includes the newest and most substantive work on event history analysis. Researchers at four institutions convened, shared models of analysis, and collected their findings for the first time. The studies included represent work done in the following organizations: The Max Planck Institute in West Germany; The U.S. Social Science Research Council's Committee on Comparative Stratification; The Special Research Unit of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; and MASO, and informal German working group on mathematical sociology. This book is one of twelve in the University of Wisconsin Press's Life Course Studies series, arranged by the series editors David L. Featherman and David I. Kertzer.

Dieses Buch thematisiert verschiedene Aspekte der Lohndynamik in Deutschland. Während der Hauptteil des Buches sich mit dem Lohnwachstum und der Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern beschäftigt, analysiert ein kleinerer Teil die Entwicklung der Lohneffekte der Tarifbindung für alle Beschäftigten. Unter anderem wird gezeigt, dass die Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern in besser bezahlte Jobs kein lediglich temporäres Phänomen ist, sondern für diese Beschäftigten zu längerfristig höheren Lohnniveaus führen kann. Das Lohnwachstum von Geringverdienern hängt allerdings von anderen betrieblichen Einflussfaktoren ab als das Lohnwachstum von Besserverdienern. Auch Persönlichkeitsmerkmale wie zum Beispiel die individuelle Kontrollüberzeugung beeinflussen die Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern. Weiterhin zeigen die Analysen, dass trotz des kontinuierlichen Rückgangs des gewerkschaftlichen Organisationsgrads und der Tarifbindung im letzten Jahrzehnt weiterhin eine - wenn auch geringe - positive Lohnprämie der Tarifbindung existiert.

In the 1990s, 'protection', 'import substitution' and 'intervention' have become dirty words, part of the 'leyenda negra' of Latin America development in the postwar period. This book attempts a fresh look at the controversial years between the end of the Second World War and the point when, at varying dates in different countries, a discontinuity occurs in which the postwar 'style of development' ceased to play a central role in the economic evolution of the region. The analysis is based on seven case studies covering eleven countries.

There is a striking scarcity of work conducted on rural labour markets in the developing world, particularly in Africa. This book aims to fill this gap by bringing together a group of contributors who boast substantial field experience researching rural wage employment in various developing countries. It provides critical perspectives on mainstream approaches to rural/agrarian development, and analysis of agrarian change and rural transformations from a long-term perspective. This book challenges the notion that rural areas in low- and middle-income countries are dominated by self-employment. It purports that this conventional view is largely due to the application of conceptual frameworks and statistical conventions that are ill-equipped to capture labour market participation. The contributions in this book offer a variety of methodological lessons for the study of rural labour markets, focusing in particular on the use of mixed methods in micro-level field research, and more emphasis on capturing occupation multiplicity. The emphasis on context, history, and specific configurations of power relations affecting rural labour market outcomes are key and reoccurring features of this book. This analysis will help readers think about policy options to improve the quantity and quality of rural wage employment, their impact on the poorest rural people, and their political feasibility in each context.