National security starts with strategic anticipation: what are the risks for the Dutch national security? How can the Netherlands prepare for this, and what choices and investments are needed in order to do so?

The term "middle power" is conceptually fragile. Some scholars have even argued for abandoning it. This book argues that the concept needs to be analysed more profoundly and that new analytical tools need to be developed to better understand the phenomenon. The traditional approach, based on Western states, is insufficient and has become increasingly irrelevant in a transformed global environment. Instead of drawing from a single theory of international relations, the contributors have chosen to build upon a wide range of theories in a deliberate demonstration of analytic eclecticism. A pluralistic approach provides stronger explanations while remaining analytically and intellectually rigorous. Many of the theory contributions are reconsidering how the largely "Western" bases of such theorising need revising in light of the "emerging middle powers", many of which are in Asia. Presenting a strong argument for studying middle powers, this book explores both the theory and empirical applications of the concept by rethinking the definition and characteristics of middle powers using a range of case studies. It examines changes in the study of middle powers over the last decade, proposing to look at the concept of middle powers in a coherent and inclusive manner. Finally, it aims to further the discussion on the evolution of the international system and provides sound conclusions about the theoretical usefulness and empirical evolution of middle powers today.

This handbook integrates a range of conceptual and empirical approaches to diplomacy in the context of ongoing technological and societal change. Technological and societal disruptions affect modern diplomacy, altering its character and reforming its way. In light of such changes, this book offers both historical foundations and contemporary perspectives in the field. By doing so, it demonstrates how contemporary change impacts the work of diplomats representing sovereign states. Global diplomatic services will forever be affected by the digitalization of engagement between states during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In this rapidly changing culture, with burgeoning geopolitical and geostrategic realignment among global powers, the tools of diplomacy have changed. The state’s foreign policy astuteness and responses to these changes could have long-term impacts. All this culminates in opportunities for improving the management of diplomatic services and efficiency of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) of various states. This book provides useful insights into how modern diplomacy works, especially the integration of informalities into formal diplomatic practices in complex peace and security environments, within such a framework of change.

​This book explores India’s economic and political relations and defence cooperation with major West European countries—France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom as well as Austria, the Visegrad Four, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and the Baltics. It examines the complexity, the elements of convergence and divergence as well as the challenges and prospects of India’s relations with these countries and assesses the diverging EU think tanks’ images of India. It focuses on India’s multi-dimensional relationship with European countries, which are major trading partners, a significant source and destination of foreign direct investment, an important source of technology and best practices. It examines the Narendra Modi government’s policies to re-energise the India-EU matrix and proactively engage Europe and its sub-regions.

HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt. This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence. The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation. The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.