Recent volatility in agricultural commodity prices and projections of world population growth raise concerns about the ability of global agricultural production to meet future demand. This report explores the potential for future agricultural production to 2050, using a model-based analysis that incorporates the key drivers of agricultural production, along with the responses of producers and consumers to changes to those drivers. Model results show that for a percentage change in population, global production and consumption of major field crops respond at nearly the same rate. In response to a change in per capita income, the per-centage change in crop consumption is much lower, about one-third the percentage change in income. The model also suggests that the global economy absorbs changes in agricultural productivity growth through compensating responses in yield, cropland area, crop prices, and international trade.

Recent volatility in agricultural commodity prices and projections of world population growth raise concerns about the ability of global agricultural production to meet future demand. This report explores the potential for future agricultural production to 2050, using a model-based analysis that incorporates the key drivers of agricultural production, along with the responses of producers and consumers to changes to those drivers. Model results show that for a percentage change in population, global production and consumption of major field crops respond at nearly the same rate. In response to a change in per capita income, the percentage change in crop consumption is much lower, about one-third the percentage change in income. The model also suggests that the global economy absorbs changes in agricultural productivity growth through compensating responses in yield, cropland area, crop prices, and international trade.

An understanding of food demand and food trends across countries and the ability to predict potential shifts in demand for different food products is an invaluable tool for all individuals involved in the agricultural sector. In a 2003 report, International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns, ERS and collaborating economists estimated income and price elasticities of demand for broad consumption categoriessuch as food, clothing, education, and other goodsand for food categories such as cereals, meats, and dairy across 114 countries using 1996 International Comparison Program (ICP) data. These elasticities measure the degree to which consumption changes when prices or incomes change. This book provides an update on the International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns using the 2005 International Date Program Data; and discusses global drivers of agricultural demand and supply.

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.