Abstract.

In analysing the development and achievements of Polish forestry and forest industries over the last four decades, it is necessary to take into consideration the situation prevailing after the end of the Second World War, when these sectors of the national economy were starting their activities. First of all, it is necessary to consider the effects of the war such as: (a) the harvesting from the forests of the present Polish territory of 3 about 200 million m of merchantable wood, which is equal to the normal harvest over a l2-year period; (b) the destruction of over half the woodworking industrial potential. In consequence, the forested area inside the new Polish boundaries amounted 40 years ago only to 20.8 per cent of the whole area of the country. There has been a continuing process of increasing the forested area of the country (although at a diminishing rate). In 1986 the forest area amounted to 27.7 per cent of the land surface, that is to 8.7 million ha, an increase of over 2 million ha in 40 years. Intensive afforestation, performed regardless of the ownership category of the land by the State forest service, was aimed primarily at making good the losses in the forested area and the rational use of land not fit for agricultural purposes.

Four RPA scenarios corresponding with scenarios from the Third and Fourth Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were simulated with the Global Forest Products Model to project forest area, volume, products demand and supply, international trade, prices, and value added up to 2060 for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, South America, and selected countries. Scenario A1B presents a 5.5-fold increase in world fuelwood use that leads to high prices of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, driven by especially strong demand in Asia for large imports from South America and Europe. World roundwood consumption reaches 11.2 billion m3 in 2060, exceeding the increment of forests, particularly in Asia. Even under scenarios A2 and B2, the harvest in Asia is unsustainable. However, scenario A1B and a low fuelwood demand lead to a global harvest of 3.6 billion m3 only and to a sustainable forest volume. The world consumption of manufactured wood products grows modestly under most scenarios, with slight changes in prices. Consumption and value added in industries increases more rapidly in Asia, due to the fast economic growth of China and India in all scenarios. As a result, Asia is a large importer of industrial roundwood from South America and Europe and of paper and paperboard from Europe and North America.