On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.

Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

FAO in the 21st Century: Ensuring Food Security in a Changing World details the current knowledge of complex and interrelated challenges that are compounding efforts to achieve global food security. It discusses likely implications for the food and agriculture sector and for hunger and poverty reduction efforts, including FAO's role in assisting members in the coming years. This book is for everyone interested in better understanding the dynamics of the current global issues and changing patterns in agriculture and natural resources.

Climate change is causing unprecedented damage to our ecosystem. Increasing temperatures, ocean warming and acidification, severe droughts, wildfires, altered precipitation patterns, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and amplification of extreme weather events have direct implications for our food systems. While the impacts of such environmental factors on food security are well known, the effects on food safety receive less attention. The purpose of Climate change: Unpacking the burden on food safety is to identify and attempt to quantify some current and anticipated food safety issues that are associated with climate change. The food safety hazards considered in the publication are foodborne pathogens and parasites, harmful algal blooms, pesticides, mycotoxins and heavy metals with emphasis on methylmercury. There is also, a dedicated section on the benefits of forward-looking approaches such as horizon scanning and foresight, which will not only aid in anticipating future challenges in a shifting global food safety landscape, but also help build resilient food systems that can be continually updated as more knowledge is assimilated. By building a more widespread and better understanding of the consequences climate change has on food safety, it is hoped that this document will aid in fostering stronger international cooperation in making our food safer by reducing the global burden of these concerns.

Tipping points are zones or thresholds of profound changes in natural or social conditions with very considerable and largely unforecastable consequences. Tipping points may be dangerous for societies and economies, especially if the prevailing governing arrangements are not designed either to anticipate them or adapt to their arrival. Tipping points can also be transformational of cultures and behaviours so that societies can learn to adapt and to alter their outlooks and mores in favour of accommodating to more sustainable ways of living. This volume examines scientific, economic and social analyses of tipping points, and the spiritual and creative approaches to identifying and anticipating them. The authors focus on climate change, ice melt, tropical forest drying and alterations in oceanic and atmospheric circulations. They also look closely at various aspects of human use of the planet, especially food production, and at the loss of biodiversity, where alterations to natural cycles may be creating convulsive couplings of tipping points. They survey the various institutional aspects of politics, economics, culture and religion to see why such dangers persist.

This book describes the interdisciplinary work of USAID's Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET) and its influence on methodological and development policies in the US. This book describes FEWS NET's systems, methods and presents several illustrative case studies that will demonstrate the integration of both physical and social science disciplines in its work. The aim of this book is to bring the work of USAID's Famine Early warning System Network into the public domain.

Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events