This report updates the macroeconomic assessment of the impact of global food and fuel price increases provided in the IMF June 2008 Board paper: Food and Fuel Prices—Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Response. Food and oil prices peaked in early summer—in particular, oil prices surged to levels envisaged under the most adverse scenario presented in the June paper. Against this background, the effects of higher prices on the balance of payments, budgets, and domestic prices intensified and a large group of low- and middle-income countries is experiencing a substantial weakening of their balance of payments and higher inflation. These findings reinforce the importance of adopting appropriate policies to maintain macroeconomic stability while protecting the poor.

This report provides a first broad assessment of the impact of the surge in food and fuel prices on the balance of payments, budgets, prices, and poverty of a large sample of countries. It reviews countries’ macroeconomic policy responses to date and also discusses Fund advice for managing the price increases. Policies should (i) ensure that food and finance reaches the most affected countries as quickly as possible, (ii) include targeted and scaled-up social measures, and (iii) avoid high costs in terms of macroeconomic instability or loss in future agricultural production. Collaborating with international partners, the Fund also stands ready to provide balance of payments assistance. As the paper presents an initial assessment of a still-evolving situation, the somewhat tentative nature of the analysis should be borne in mind.

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

By 2050 the world will be faced with the enormous challenge of feeding 9 billion people despite being affected by climate change, rising energy costs and pressure on food growing land and other major resources. How will the world produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people? What will be the impact of food shortages and high prices on areas in crisis such as sub-Sahara Africa? Where will future production growth come from? And how do we balance the need for environmental protection with sustainable agricultural production methods? This is the first text to present a scholarly, balanced approach to the contentious area of food production and supply up to 2050 - offering a readable and well-informed account which tackles the global food situation in all its totality, from agricultural production, technological advance, dietary concerns, population changes, income trends, environmental issues, government food and agriculture policy, trade, financial markets, macroeconomics and food security. Highly accessible and written by a specialist author with experience as an agricultural analyst, policy advisor and researcher, Global Food Futures synthesises the key issues in one volume.

A series of crises unfolded in the latter part of the first decade of the 21st Century which combined to exacerbate already profound conditions of global economic inequality and poverty in the world’s poorest countries. In 2007, the unsound lending practices that caused a collapse in the US housing market ushered in a broader economic crisis that reverberated throughout the global financial system. This economic shockwave had a global impact, triggering not just instability in other industrialized countries, but also in their developing world counterparts, also highlighting deficiencies in the current structures of global governance to protect the world’s poorest and most disadvantaged. This book offers answers to questions raised about the role of global governance in the attenuation and amelioration of world poverty and inequality. The contributors interrogate the role of systems of governance at a time of global economic crisis and continuing environmental degradation against a backdrop of acceleration in inequalities within and between communities and across the globe. Evaluating how existing systems can be reformed or redesigned to be more effective at addressing issues of poverty and inequality and providing a comprehensive discussion of a wide range of global governance initiatives this work will be essential reading for students and scholars of global governance, international relations and international organizations.

Interest in biofuels began with oil shocks in the 1970’s, but the more rapid development and consumption of biofuel industry in recent years has been primarily driven by mandates, subsidies, climate change concerns, emissions targets and energy security. From 2004 to 2006, fuel ethanol grew by 26% and biodiesel grew by 172%. As biofuel production continues to expand, investments in capacity expansion and research and development have been made. The 2008 food crisis emphasized the need to re-examine biofuel consequences. Biofuels remain an important renewable energy resource to substitute for fossil fuels, particularly in the transportation sector, yet biofuels’ success is still uncertain. The future of biofuels in the energy supply mix relies on mitigating potential and improving the environmental gains. This book brings together leading authorities on biofuel from the World Bank to examine all of the impacts of biofuel (economic, social, environmental) within a unified framework and in a global perspective, making it of interest to academics in agricultural and environmental economics as well as industry and policy-makers.