The paper distinguishes between three different channels through which fiscal policy changes may be transmitted to exchange rates. Based on both the balance of payments identity and empirical observations, it is argued that trade balances and exchange rates may be quite responsive to changes in the relative attractiveness of locating production facilities or storing other “taxable” forms of wealth in different countries. Recognition that fiscal policy has a major influence on asset location decisions may thus be very important for understanding the behavior of exchange rates.

We survey the literature on the two main views of exchange rate determination that have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flex-price, sticky-price and real interest differential formulations) and the portfolio balance approach. We then go on to discuss the extant empirical evidence on these models and conclude by discussing how the future research strategy in the area of exchange rate determination is likely to develop. We also discuss the literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, on exchange rates and ‘news’ and on international parity conditions.

This book draws together the seminal contributions to the literature on the nature of macroeconomics in open economies and illuminates the material. This is an essential guide to the subject for students.

The issue of whether constraints should be placed on fiscal policies when moving to European monetary union is examined in the context of the use of fiscal policy for macroeconomic stabilization purposes. Examples of shocks hitting French and German economies are considered: an appreciation of their joint exchange rate against other currencies, an inflation shock, and an oil price increase. Except in the third case, flexible use of fiscal policies in the two countries is likely to give better outcomes than a system with constraints on their use. For the oil price shock, there seems to be a good case for policy coordination, not for ceilings on fiscal deficits.

Although accommodative policies and widespread indexation may account for the persistence of high inflation, they cannot explain changes in the inflation rate. The causes of such changes for the high-inflation episodes immediately preceding the recent “heterodox” attempts at stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel are examined by computing historical decompositions of these episodes based on vector autoregressions, distinguishing between the “fiscal” and “balance of payments” views of their causes. In all three cases, nominal exchange rate shocks played the dominant role in triggering an acceleration of inflation. [JEL 134]