Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design

Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP. Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a pivotal institution in global economic governance tasked with ensuring monetary stability and preventing financial crises through promoting balanced trade, economic growth, and poverty reduction. It also plays a powerful normative role by shaping economic policies worldwide through its research and expertise. The IMF played a crucial role in managing crises like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, providing significant financial aid and advocating for stimulus measures. However, the IMF faces both internal and external challenges from reforming its governance structure to better represent emerging economies to finding its place in a world increasingly defying liberal internationalism and multilateralism. Despite reforms, power remains concentrated among advanced economies, hindering inclusivity and trust, particularly in regions like sub-Saharan Africa. Geopolitical tensions, populist nationalism, and economic imbalances further strain the IMF's effectiveness. This handbook aims to uncover these challenges by providing diverse perspectives and proposing policy recommendations that the Fund could undertake to better navigate the complex landscape of 21st-century global governance. Part I delves into its historical origins and key debates of the IMF. Part II focuses on formal operations such as lending, surveillance, and capacity development. Part III explores the involvement of different actors including states, markets, and civil society. Part IV discusses partnerships with other international organizations and collaboration in financial regulation. Part V analyzes shifts in policy instruments and ideological frameworks. Part VI broadens concerns to include gender mainstreaming, labor markets, climate policy, and inclusive growth. Part VII addresses internal challenges including cultural diversity concerns and uniformity of treatment. Part VIII evaluates external challenges such as populist movements, China's influence, global inequality and unresolved issues in Europe. Part IX explores how the IMF can meet the multiple challenges identified in this volume and positively impact 21st century global governance.

Belgium is facing higher structural deficits and rising debt after the pandemic and energy crisis. Fiscal consolidation is needed to lower inflation, rebuild buffers, reduce debt, and preserve Belgium’s social contract. While designing an appropriate fiscal consolidation path involves trade-offs, an ideally front-loaded and significant adjustment to achieve a medium-term structural balance would reduce public debt towards the 60 percent debt threshold, significantly reducing vulnerabilities. Experiences in other countries and in the past in Belgium show that while ambitious, such an adjustment is achievable. Comparisons with peers show that rationalizing and increasing the efficiency of social benefits and the public wage bill would need to be at the core of the consolidation effort. All federal entities should share the burden of the adjustment, in a coordinated manner, with accountability at all levels of government, and within a credible and clear multi-year consolidation plan. Comprehensive spending reviews would help target budgetary saving. To mitigate the growth impact in the near term and boost potential growth, public investment should be preserved, and the adjustment should go together with structural reforms to increase labor force participation and productivity.

Brunei Darussalam: Selected Issues

This book presents carefully selected chapters from the proceedings of the 6th International Scientific Conference on Business and Economics (ISCBE),Tetovo, North Macedonia, which took place in May 2023. The chapters address a wide range of areas relevant to contemporary business and economics issues such as economic shocks, high inflation, energy crisis, COVID-19, growth prospects, economic forecast, labor market, gender inequalities, migration, entrepreneurship, and family businesses, firm development and innovations, technological transformation, etc. Researchers learn about the latest studies that discuss emerging challenges and perspectives of business and economics in the perspective of post-crisis economic recovery, consolidation, and stability.

Belgium: Selected Issues