Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data
Title Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data PDF eBook
Author Peter Fuleky
Publisher Springer Nature
Pages 716
Release 2019-11-28
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 3030311503

Download Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts

Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts
Title Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts PDF eBook
Author Sophia Chen
Publisher International Monetary Fund
Pages 33
Release 2017-01-18
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 1475567685

Download Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.

Understanding Economic Forecasts

Understanding Economic Forecasts
Title Understanding Economic Forecasts PDF eBook
Author David F. Hendry
Publisher MIT Press
Pages 236
Release 2003
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 9780262582421

Download Understanding Economic Forecasts Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting
Title Economic Forecasting PDF eBook
Author Graham Elliott
Publisher Princeton University Press
Pages 567
Release 2016-04-05
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 1400880890

Download Economic Forecasting Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Economic Forecasting and Policy

Economic Forecasting and Policy
Title Economic Forecasting and Policy PDF eBook
Author N. Carnot
Publisher Palgrave Macmillan
Pages 0
Release 2011-07-26
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 9780230243217

Download Economic Forecasting and Policy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Title Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF eBook
Author G. Elliott
Publisher Elsevier
Pages 1071
Release 2006-07-14
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 0444513957

Download Handbook of Economic Forecasting Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'.

Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting
Title Economic Forecasting PDF eBook
Author N. Carnot
Publisher Palgrave Macmillan
Pages 315
Release 2005-08-12
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 9781403936530

Download Economic Forecasting Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.