Mathematical modelling is ubiquitous. Almost every book in exact science touches on mathematical models of a certain class of phenomena, on more or less speci?c approaches to construction and investigation of models, on their applications, etc. As many textbooks with similar titles, Part I of our book is devoted to general qu- tions of modelling. Part II re?ects our professional interests as physicists who spent much time to investigations in the ?eld of non-linear dynamics and mathematical modelling from discrete sequences of experimental measurements (time series). The latter direction of research is known for a long time as “system identi?cation” in the framework of mathematical statistics and automatic control theory. It has its roots in the problem of approximating experimental data points on a plane with a smooth curve. Currently, researchers aim at the description of complex behaviour (irregular, chaotic, non-stationary and noise-corrupted signals which are typical of real-world objects and phenomena) with relatively simple non-linear differential or difference model equations rather than with cumbersome explicit functions of time. In the second half of the twentieth century, it has become clear that such equations of a s- ?ciently low order can exhibit non-trivial solutions that promise suf?ciently simple modelling of complex processes; according to the concepts of non-linear dynamics, chaotic regimes can be demonstrated already by a third-order non-linear ordinary differential equation, while complex behaviour in a linear model can be induced either by random in?uence (noise) or by a very high order of equations.

Build efficient forecasting models using traditional time series models and machine learning algorithms. Key FeaturesPerform time series analysis and forecasting using R packages such as Forecast and h2oDevelop models and find patterns to create visualizations using the TSstudio and plotly packagesMaster statistics and implement time-series methods using examples mentionedBook Description Time series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time series analysis with R and lays the foundations you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data and extract meaningful information from it using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R such as the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The later section of the book delves into traditional forecasting models such as time series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also cover advanced time series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have the skills needed to explore your data, identify patterns, and build a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods. What you will learnVisualize time series data and derive better insightsExplore auto-correlation and master statistical techniquesUse time series analysis tools from the stats, TSstudio, and forecast packagesExplore and identify seasonal and correlation patternsWork with different time series formats in RExplore time series models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and moreEvaluate high-performance forecasting solutionsWho this book is for Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R is ideal for data analysts, data scientists, and all R developers who are looking to perform time series analysis to predict outcomes effectively. A basic knowledge of statistics is required; some knowledge in R is expected, but not mandatory.

The two-volume set LNAI 6634 and 6635 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 15th Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, PAKDD 2011, held in Shenzhen, China in May 2011. The total of 32 revised full papers and 58 revised short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 331 submissions. The papers present new ideas, original research results, and practical development experiences from all KDD-related areas including data mining, machine learning, artificial intelligence and pattern recognition, data warehousing and databases, statistics, knoweldge engineering, behavior sciences, visualization, and emerging areas such as social network analysis.

This book is considered as a monograph but also as a potential textbook for graduate students, focusing on the application of FCMs for modelling and analysing the behaviour of multicomponent systems. In the last two decades, no monograph or textbook has been published on the topic Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), so this new book is definitely filling a gap in the literature of computational intelligence. The book is built up didactically, the novel results in the field being presented in the way of starting with two real-life case studies, one in the area of waste management, while the other one in modelling bank management systems. In both cases, the book starts with explaining the applied problem and then presenting how the model construction is done and what problems emerge when attempts are made for applying directly earlier results on FCM modelling. In the first case study, the problem of the oversimplification leads to inadequacy of the model, and then it is shown how new, much finer models can be built up based on expert domain knowledge. Then, the new problem of losing transparency and interpretability emerges, and as a solution, a new algorithm family is proposed that reduces FCMs to fewer components, while preserving the essential characteristics of the original model. The second case study raises the problems of stability and sensitivity of FCMs, especially, considering that expert knowledge is often uncertain and subjective. The new results summarised in the book target the questions of how to ascertain whether an FCM is converging to one or several fixed point attractors, whether there is a bifurcation when parameters are changing, etc. Both problems deal with the ultimate question whether the system modelled is stable and sustainable.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 8th Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data mining, PAKDD 2004, held in Sydney, Australia in May 2004. The 50 revised full papers and 31 revised short papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from a total of 238 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on classification; clustering; association rules; novel algorithms; event mining, anomaly detection, and intrusion detection; ensemble learning; Bayesian network and graph mining; text mining; multimedia mining; text mining and Web mining; statistical methods, sequential data mining, and time series mining; and biomedical data mining.