Current views about flexible exchange rate systems are based, to a large extent, on the lessons from the period of the 1920's during which many exchange rates were flexible. This paper re-examines the evidence from the perspective of the recently revived monetary approach (or more generally, asset-market approach) to the exchange rate. The analysis starts by developing a simple monetary model of exchange rate determination. The key characteristic of the model lies in the notion that, being a relative price of two monies, the equilibrium exchange rate is attained when the existing stocks of the two monies are willingly held. The equilibrium exchange rate is shown to depend on both real and monetary factors which operate through their influence on the relative demands and supplies of monies. The analysis then proceeds to examine the relationship between spot and forward rates for the Franc/Pound, Dollar/Pound and Franc/Dollar exchange rates and the results are shown to be consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. The monetary model is then estimated using monthly data and using the forward premium on foreign exchange as a measure of expectations. In addition to the single-equation ordinary-least-squares estimates, the various exchange rates are also estimated as a system using the mixed-estimation procedure which combines the sample information with prior information which derives from the homogeneity postulate and from known properties of the demand for money. The various results are shown to be consistent with the predictions of the monetary model.

This paper applies the analytical framework of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination to the analysis of the Dollar/Pound exchange rate during the first part of the 1920's. The analysis uses monthly data up to the return of Britain to gold in 1925. The equilibrium exchange rate is shown to be influenced by both real and monetary factors which operate through their influence on the relative demands and supplies of monies. Special attention is given to examination of the relationship between exchange rates and the relative price of traded to non-traded goods. In the empirical work the prices of traded goods are proxied by the wholesale price indices and the prices of non-traded are proxied by wages. One of the key findings of the paper is the estimate of the elasticity of the exchange rate with respect to the relative price of traded to non-traded goods. This elasticity is estimated with high precision and is shown to be .415 which provides an independent measure of the relative share of spending on non-traded goods. This estimate is consistent with other estimates obtained in studies of expenditure shares. The paper concluded with a dynamic simulation which indicates the satisfactory quality of the predictive ability of the model

This paper replies to Ahking’s (1990) re-examination of Taylor and McMahon’s (1988) analysis of long-run purchasing power parity in the 1920s. We demonstrate that Ahking’s conclusions are only partially correct and reestablish our conclusion that, a form of long-run purchasing-power parity did in fact hold for dollar-sterling during this period. The new results are also employed to gauge the degree of overvaluation of sterling relative to the imposed prewar parity of $4.86 upon its return to gold and for 12 months afterwards.

The themes of this study are the exchange rate regimes chosen by policy makers in the twentieth century, the means used to maintain these regimes, and the impact of these decisions on individual national economies and the world economy in general. The book draws heavily on new research showing the lessons and the legacy left for policy makers by the gold standard and the attempt at its resurrection in the 1920s. In examining issues such as the gold exchange standard, the gold bullion standard, the experience of floating exchange rates, the Bretton Woods arrangements, the EMS and the ERM, and the Currency Board approach, there is a conscious attempt to draw out the relevance of history for policy makers now.

This paper summarizes the results of an empirical study of the operation of flexible exchange rates during the 1920's under both the hyperinflationary conditions (based on the experience of Germany) and under the normal conditions (based on the experience of Britain, the United States and France).Section I deals with some general characteristics of the market for foreign exchange by examining the relationship between spot and forward exchange rates. Section II deals with the relationship between exchange rates and prices by examining aspects of the purchasing power parity doctrine. Section III deals with the determinants of exchange rates within the context of a simple monetary model