Following on from his Adventures in Financial Data Science, Graham Giller, one of Wall Streets original data scientists, collects together a set of pieces on optimal trading strategy design. These address the key issue not answered in the first volume of the series on Financial Data Science, how to go from an alpha to a trade. The division of topics is shaped by what Graham calls "Peter Muller's Rule": the analysis of systems to predict prices and systems to trade from predictions should be separated. This makes trading strategy agnostic as to the origins of the information contained within the alpha and clarifies the analytical methodology developed.

This book directly focuses on finding optimal trading strategies in the real world and supports that with a well-defined theoretical foundation that allows trading strategy problems to be solved. Critically, it also delivers a menu of actual solutions that can be applied by traders with various risk profiles and objectives in markets that exhibit substantial tail risk. It shows how the Markowitz approach leads to excessive risk taking, and trader underperformance, in the real world. It summarizes the key features of Utility Theory, the deficiencies of the Sharpe Ratio as a statistic, and develops an optimal decision theory with fully developed examples for both 'Normal' and leptokurtotic distributions.

This book provides insights into the true nature of financial and economic data, and is a practical guide on how to analyze a variety of data sources. The focus of the book is on finance and economics, but it also illustrates the use of quantitative analysis and data science in many different areas. Lastly, the book includes practical information on how to store and process data and provides a framework for data driven reasoning about the world.The book begins with entertaining tales from Graham Giller's career in finance, starting with speculating in UK government bonds at the Oxford Post Office, accidentally creating a global instant messaging system that went 'viral' before anybody knew what that meant, on being the person who forgot to hit 'enter' to run a hundred-million dollar statistical arbitrage system, what he decoded from his brief time spent with Jim Simons, and giving Michael Bloomberg a tutorial on Granger Causality.The majority of the content is a narrative of analytic work done on financial, economics, and alternative data, structured around both Dr Giller's professional career and some of the things that just interested him. The goal is to stimulate interest in predictive methods, to give accurate characterizations of the true properties of financial, economic and alternative data, and to share what Richard Feynman described as 'The Pleasure of Finding Things Out.'

This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.

In his new book, Ernest Preeg analyzes international trade and investment in the 1990s and lays out a comprehensive U.S. trade strategy for the uncertain period ahead. He examines the influence of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and argues that economic globalization is beneficial to the U.S. economy in the short- to medium-term while raising important questions about national sovereignty and security over the longer term. Preeg believes regional free trade agreements will soon encompass the majority of world trade, but they can conflict with the WTO's multilateral objectives. The central challenge for U.S. trade strategy, then, is to integrate the now largely separate multilateral and regional tracks of the world trading system. The first essay assesses U.S. interests in economic globalization, the second examines recent steps toward free trade at the multilateral and regional levels, and the next three offer an in-depth critique of U.S. regional free trade objectives in the Americas, across the Pacific, and possibly with Europe. The final essay presents a multilateral/regional synthesis for going from here to free trade over the coming decade.

Master Traders introduces you to an outstanding group of financial experts—from seasoned hedge fund managers to top technical analysts—who discuss the methods they use to tame today’s highly volatile and unpredictable markets. Composed of chapters contributed by leading financial professionals, Master Traders contains a variety of proven strategies and techniques that will give you an edge in the world of stocks, options, and futures.