The book provides comprehensive empirical analyses on two overarching research topics with a focus on Europe, covering the period from the global financial crisis to the end of 2021, with a special emphasis on the post-European sovereign debt crisis era. The first research focus addresses the direction of the relationship between the risk premium and the risk-free interest rate. Although this issue is not entirely new, it has gained particular relevance due to the historically low interest rates until the end of 2021. Risk premiums are derived from sovereign and corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The empirical results suggest a positive relationship. The second research focus is dedicated to effects on the bond and derivatives markets following the ECB's monetary policy measures PSPP, CSPP and PEPP as well as the EU's fiscal policy measure NGEU. Immediate announcement effects can be observed through the PEPP and the NGEU, but also through the so-called Lagarde gaffe. Further investigations point to a search for yield behavior in Eurozone countries following the ECB's announcements of the PSPP and the CSPP. Additional analyses indicate a fiscally dominated ECB from 2015 to 2021. About the author Dr. Thomas Jopp studied Industrial Engineering and Business Management and earned his doctorate under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Daniela Lorenz at the Chair of Business Management and Corporate Finance at Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Germany.

This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.

In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.

Aims to annually publish original scholarly econometrics papers on designated topics with the intention of expanding the use of developed and emerging econometric techniques by disseminating ideas on the theory and practice of econometrics throughout the empirical economic, business and social science literature.

Philip Ernstberger analyses in his three essays different topics of financial pathologies. Thereby, changes in fundamentals as well as information are considered as the driving force for the behavior of speculators and investors. The first essay deals with currency crises, in which the central bank, through setting the interest rate, steers the economy and defends against speculators. The second essay examines the effects of a rating and possible biases on the coordination of investors and the pricing of debt. In the third essay the author uses forecasts of default probabilities and implied market default probabilities to infer the weighing of information by investors.