This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.

This research brief describes analysis of escalation risks in the war in Ukraine, including what can be learned from the conflict to date and what escalation risks may be most acute going forward.

"The potential for Russia to decide to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective summarizes the most-plausible pathways that could lead to a Russian decision to target NATO member states during the current conflict, describes the conditions under which Moscow might undertake such actions, and lays out how U.S. and NATO actions-including ongoing military assistance to Ukraine-could affect each pathway's likelihood. The authors conclude with a set of key considerations for U.S. policymakers to help them manage escalation risks while continuing to pursue U.S. objectives in the context of the war in Ukraine. Although escalation risks stemming from this war are real and significant, this Perspective helps to bound those concerns; a Russia-NATO war is far from an inevitable outcome of the current conflict. U.S. and allied policymakers should be concerned with specific pathways and potential triggers, but they need not operate under the assumption that every action will entail acute escalation risks."--

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatist movements in the Donbass region of Ukraine. The conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths and displacement of people, and it continues to be a major source of tension between the two countries.There is a potential for escalation of the conflict, as both sides continue to engage in military actions and rhetoric. Russia has continued to support separatist movements in eastern Ukraine, and there have been reports of increased military activity along the border. Ukraine has also been strengthening its military capabilities and has called for Western support.The risk of wider regional conflict is also a concern, as the conflict could potentially draw in neighboring countries and other regional powers. The conflict has already strained relations between Russia and the West, and there have been economic sanctions and diplomatic tensions.Furthermore, there are concerns about the impact of the conflict on the wider region, including the potential for increased instability and displacement of people. The conflict has already led to a humanitarian crisis, with many people in the affected areas struggling to access basic necessities like food and healthcare.It is important for all parties involved to work towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict, and to avoid actions that could lead to further escalation or wider regional conflict. Diplomatic efforts and dialogue should be prioritized, and support should be provided to those affected by the conflict.

One of The New York Times’ “6 Books to Read for Context on Ukraine” “A short and insightful primer” to the crisis in Ukraine and its implications for both the Crimean Peninsula and Russia’s relations with the West (New York Review of Books) The current conflict in Ukraine has spawned the most serious crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. It has undermined European security, raised questions about NATO's future, and put an end to one of the most ambitious projects of U.S. foreign policy—building a partnership with Russia. It also threatens to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. And in the absence of direct negotiations, each side is betting that political and economic pressure will force the other to blink first. Caught in this dangerous game of chicken, the West cannot afford to lose sight of the importance of stable relations with Russia. This book puts the conflict in historical perspective by examining the evolution of the crisis and assessing its implications both for the Crimean Peninsula and for Russia’s relations with the West more generally. Experts in the international relations of post-Soviet states, political scientists Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer clearly show what is at stake in Ukraine, explaining the key economic, political, and security challenges and prospects for overcoming them. They also discuss historical precedents, sketch likely outcomes, and propose policies for safeguarding U.S.-Russia relations in the future. In doing so, they provide a comprehensive and accessible study of a conflict whose consequences will be felt for many years to come.

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

The spectre of war with Russia looms large in the imagination of European and American policymakers in 2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has reawakened thinking in terms of risks and ‘escalation’. Since both Russia and NATO-states US, UK and France have nuclear arsenals, the nuclear threat has also returned to the forefront. Clearly, Putin’s Russia is engaging in brinkmanship and one-sided escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, and thus the risk of escalation must therefore be taken seriously. Keeping citizens and territory safe is the task of NATO and its member-state governments. At the same time, European and American accommodation and acceptance of Russian aggression and threats are a recipe for further escalation from the Russian side and a problematic international precedent to set. Thus, NATO as a whole, and NATO-states individually, must keep a balanced position: do not cave to unacceptable threats, as accommodation is a recipe for further escalation from the Russian side.