Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.

During the 1980s and 1990s, financial sectors were the Achilles heel of economic development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Since then, these sectors have grown and deepened, becoming more integrated and competitive, with new actors, markets, and instruments springing up and financial inclusion broadening. To crown these achievements, the region s financial systems were left largely unscathed by the global financial crisis of 2008 09. Now that the successes of LAC s macrofinancial stability are widely recognized and tested, it is high time for an in-depth stocktaking of what remains to be done. Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Road Ahead provides both a stocktaking and a forward-looking assessment of the region s financial development. Rather than going into detail about sector-specific issues, the report focuses on the main architectural issues, overall perspectives, and interconnections. The report s value added thus hinges on its holistic view of the development process, its broad coverage of the financial services industry beyond banking, its emphasis on benchmarking, its systemic perspective, and its explicit effort to incorporate the lessons from the recent global financial crisis. Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Road Ahead builds on and complements several overview studies on financial development in both LAC countries and the developing world that were published in the past decade. It will be of interest to policy makers and financial analysts interested in improving the financial sector in the LAC region.

This edition of the World Bank has been revised and expanded by the Terminology Unit in the Languages Services Division of the World Bank in collaboration with the English, Spanish, and French Translation Sections. The Glossary is intended to assist the Bank's translators and interpreters, other Bank staff using French and Spanish in their work, and free-lance translator's and interpreters employed by the Bank. For this reason, the Glossary contains not only financial and economic terminology and terms relating to the Bank's procedures and practices, but also terms that frequently occur in Bank documents, and others for which the Bank has a preferred equivalent. Although many of these terms, relating to such fields as agriculture, education, energy, housing, law, technology, and transportation, could be found in other sources, they have been assembled here for ease of reference. A list of acronyms occurring frequently in Bank texts (the terms to which they refer being found in the Glossary) and a list of international, regional, and national organizations will be found at the end of the Glossary.