Global foreign exchange (FX) trading volume in traditional FX products and derivatives in Asia and the Pacific has expanded rapidly over the last 15 years, more so than in other regions. Asian currencies also have experienced exceptional growth in offshore turnover, including that of non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). Trading activity on this scale, spread across many countries and currencies, underscores the need for a smoothly functioning infrastructure and exceptional risk management processes. While settlement risks are mitigated for the vast majority of turnover through systems such as CLS Bank, the Asia-Pacific region would benefit by having more countries and currencies become CLS-enabled or tradable under other payment-versus-payment (PVP) systems. Although their volatility was less pronounced than during the global financial crisis, FX markets in the region experienced added turbulence during the “taper tantrum” of 2013. High-turnover currencies tended to depreciate more after the taper announcements, although volatility rose more sharply in currencies with low turnover. The FX market is a prominent venue for carry trades that are subject to crash risk. While there is some evidence of herding behaviour exacerbating this risk over the past decade, the measures calibrated more recently do not suggest exceptional crowding into carry trades ahead of the “taper tantrum” in 2013. At the same time, our measures of crowdedness for the carry trade show considerable variation over time. It might be useful to make crowdedness measures publicly available.Full publication: 'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2668657' Cross-Border Financial Linkages: Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.

Ever more extensive global financial linkages are changing in ways that have significant implications for policy. Asia-Pacific countries have experienced a particularly rapid growth in financial flows since the crisis. Against this background, the BIS's Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) co-hosted a conference on cross-border financial linkages with a view to fostering research on implications of these important developments. The conference marked the completion of the BIS Asian Office's research programme in this area.The event brought together senior officials and researchers from central banks, international organisations and academia. Governor Graeme Wheeler of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand made the opening remarks. Papers presented at the conference covered patterns of cross-border linkages, foreign exchange markets and exchange rate risks, financial market spillovers in Asia-Pacific, and policies to deal with capital flows and their effectiveness. The volume comprises the opening speech and papers presented at the conference.While the full publication can be downloaded using the above link, individual contributions are available separately:'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2668678' Cross-border Portfolios: Assets, Liabilities, and Non-flow Adjustments'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2668667' Channels and Determinants of Foreign Bank Lending'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2668686' Development and Functioning of FX Markets in Asia and the Pacific'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2668709' Exchange Rates, Expected Returns and Risk: What Can We Learn from Asia-Pacific Currencies?'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2668692' The Influence of Chinese and US Financial Markets on Asia-Pacific'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2668717' Effectiveness of Macroprudential and Capital Flow Measures in Asia and the Pacific.

Recent events in East Asia have highlighted the risks of volatility and contagion in a financially integrated world. Countries in the region had been at the forefront of the movement towards increased integration but the crisis that struck Thailand in July 1997, and the rapidity with which it spread to other East Asian nations, suggested that all was not well. Weaknesses in domestic financial intermediation, poor corporate governance and deficient government responses to large capital inflows all played a role in the build-up of vulnerability. Asia-Pacific Financial Deregulation provides an insight into financial liberalisation and structural reform in the region generally and as illustrated by a number of countries.

Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is a highly debated topic. Yet, comprehensive and comparable data on FXI is hard to find. This paper provides a new dataset of FXI covering a large number of countries over the period 2000-20 at monthly and quarterly frequencies. It includes publicly available data for about 40 countries and carefully constructed proxies for 122 countries. Proxies are focused on both spot and derivative transactions that alter the central bank’s foreign currency position and account for a wide range of central bank operations, including vis-à-vis residents, the first proxy to do so to our knowledge. The paper discusses the merits of the new proxy relative to coarser measures traditionally used like the change in reserves, and potential definitional differences with published data. The paper also presents stylized facts using our newly constructed FXI proxies.

One of a series of working papers put out by the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the ANU. Reviews the evidence linking exchange rate volatility to trade and presents arguments for not reforming the international monetary system to stabilise exchange rates. Suggests instead that other ways to curb the growth of non-tariff barriers to trade be examined. Includes a list of references.

Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.